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Week 1: Western Michigan vs. Michigan St. Preview & Pick

WMU vs MSU Gambling Preview + Predictions

Kyle Hunter

Kyle Hunter

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Date/Time: Saturday September 4th – 12:05 PM
Venue: Spartan Stadium
Western Michigan (0-0) vs. Michigan State (0-0) Lines from 5dimes
MoneyLine: Michigan State (-2500) Western Michigan (+1400)
CFB Betting Favorite: Michigan State -22.5
Over/Under: 53.5
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Western Michigan at Michigan State Week One Preview

Western Michigan

The Broncos must replace quarterback Tim Hiller as well as many other high quality starters from last year’s squad. The team underperformed badly in 2009 by finishing just 5-7, and now the pressure is on for this team to get back to its winning ways.

There is definitely talent to work with for the Broncos, but there also plenty of gaps as well. The wide receivers are loaded with talent. Western Michigan has three top of the line wide receivers in Juan Nunez, Jordan White, and Robert Arnheim. This trio is almost certainly the best in the MAC. The question then becomes, how will the quarterback play be? With Hiller gone and Alex Carder taking over, the Broncos will need to make sure they continue to get the football to their talented wide receivers.

The defense seems to have a ton of talent, but they have simply underperformed in a big way. Last year, they finished 12th in the MAC in total defense. They will definitely need to improve on that number if they wish to contend for the MAC Western Division title. The defense needs some more out of their front four, because the back seven should be very good. The safeties are the best in the conference and the linebackers are all very quick to the ball. College Football

Michigan State

The Spartans would like to put last year behind them and make 2010 a brand new year. The scandals surrounding the program and the lack of quality wins marred the 2009 season. Coach Mark Dantonio’s team is a common sleeper pick from many of the experts for this year. I see a team with a lot of talent at the skill positions, but some large question marks as well, especially on defense.

Kirk Cousins has definitely turned into one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks. The signal caller has impressed in the offseason and many are expecting a huge year from him. There are some question marks at wide receiver, but the team is stacked full of great tight ends that should provide a great security blanket for Cousins and the passing game.

The running back position is a spot where the Spartans are extremely deep. Larry Caper, Edwin Baker, and Ashton Leggett should all see plenty of playing time in the backfield.

What is the problem with this Michigan State team? They simply can’t defend against the pass. Michigan State was last in the Big 10 against the pass, and they were last by a large margin. The cornerbacks haven’t proven able to play man defense, and the safeties often let the play get behind them.

The Spartans certainly have the talent to make some noise this year, but they’ll need improved play from the secondary as well as solid play from an offensive line that is replacing three starters.

College Football Gambling Trends

Western Michigan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Western Michigan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan State’s last 5 games
Michigan State is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
Michigan State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Western Michigan’s last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Michigan’s last 6 games

The Pick:

This looks like a game where both teams will be able to score points. The Western Michigan defense has consistently underperformed and Kirk Cousins is liable to light them up. On the other side, Michigan State definitely doesn’t have the secondary to cover the Broncos great trio of wide receivers.

Michigan State is the better team and I fully expect them to win this one, but I think the best play is on the over 53.5.

Michigan State vs. Western Michigan Score Prediction: 38-21

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About Kyle Hunter

Kyle Hunter sports picks – A degree in finance and a great ability to follow important trends and statistics set him apart from the rest. Totals are Kyle's specialty, so look for a lot of totals picks from NBA, NCAAF, & the NFL. Check out his plays today.