2013-14 Preview (ACC) North Carolina
Former coach Butch Davis did a great job bringing talent to Chapel Hill but he never won enough to justify putting the program in some sticky situations. Last year the program moved on with new coach Larry Fedora and had a very solid 8-4 season.
North Carolina Tar Heels (Team Link)
Coach: Larry Fedora
2012 Record: 8-4
Odds of winning BCS Championship: +35000
There were highlights including wins over Miami and Virginia Tech but there were also embarrassments like giving up 68 points to Georgia Tech. That is not a typo.
As those 68 points indicate there is not the kind of defensive talent on campus like there was during the Davis era. Fedora is more of an offense guy which is why it will be on veteran defensive coach Vic Koenning to turn things around on that side of the ball. If they do North Carolina will be a very dangerous team yet again.
If they can’t then North Carolina will likely not exceed last year’s win total in year two under Fedora.
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It is amazing how many senior quarterbacks there are in the ACC this season. Tar Heel QB Bryn Renner is among that group but he hardly gets any real attention, and he should.
With another year like last year he will exit the program as the most prolific passer they have ever had and reaching that goal seems very likely with his top two targets from last year, still around in WR Quinshad Davis and TE Eric Ebron.
Last year the Tar Heels had a great running attack but top rusher Gio Bernard is going to be toting the rock for the Cincinnati Bengals this fall. Getting his first chance to be featured is senior A.J. Blue who scored 9 TDs in limited action last season.
While Bernard was hard to tackle Blue is a jackhammer in the backfield that can just run over people. Behind a line with just two returning starters I am not sure which is the better style but either way the running game should be effective yet again.
The defense last year was below the standards that had been set more recently.
This season they return just 5 starters but that includes two lineman and 3 defensive backs so those units should be in pretty good shape. At linebacker they are more green and we will have to wait and see how that affects this team which was in the middle of the ACC defensively last season.
I think they are going to be just fine but probably not quite good enough to control the few really good offenses they will face this season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
2013-14 Record Projection: 8-4
I think things are going to shake out about the same in Larry Fedora’s second season as coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels start the season with a nice game at highly rated South Carolina, which should they win will vault them into serious consideration in the ACC and beyond.
I think that is probably too tall an order for this good but not great team because the defense is likely just not where it will need to be yet. The offense will be very good though and might approach last year’s 40ppg.
It will keep them in a lot of games and make them a valuable ATS team in their toughest games against the likes of South Carolina, Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.. This season North Carolina will win all the games they are supposed to which should make them a good ATS squad overall too.
Don’t ignore them just because they are not cranking out any upsets and especially not because they are likely to struggle for wins out of the game. I really like them to cover as the dog in that opener and they will probably win their final 6 games.
2013 Tar Heels Schedule:
AUG 29 – @South Carolina
SEP 7 – Middle Tennessee
SEP 21 – @Georgia Tech
SEP 28 – East Carolina
OCT 5 – @Virginia Tech
OCT 17 – Miami
OCT 26 – Boston College
NOV 2 – @NC State
NOV 9 – Virginia
NOV 14 – @Pittsburgh
NOV 23 – Old Dominion
NOV 30 – Duke
