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Eagles vs. Commodores Preview/Pick: Music City Bowl

Music City Bowl Boston College vs Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is in a winter wonderland, going to its first bowl game in 26 years, seeking its first post-season win since 1955, and at home no less. The Commodores had even higher hopes than their own hometown Music City Bowl when they got off to a 5-0 start, but they went just 1-6 beyond that. One of the reasons was that the offensive faucet got completely turned off.    

BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: BOSTON COLLEGE -3.5, Total 41

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BC has won and covered four of its last five games
* BC has played seven of its last nine games
* VAN has covered one of its last five games
* VAN has lost six of its last seven games SU
* VAN has played seven of its last nine games UNDER the total

In the last seven games of the season they scored only 114 points (16.3 per game). As for the “home field edge,” well, the ‘Dores tallied 14 points against Auburn and Florida, 10 against Tennessee and only seven against Duke. For a team that was really capitalizing on turnovers, the ratio in those last seven games was minus-3.

Boston College had, on balance, an unsatisfying year. The Eagles missed out on a BCS berth when they failed to win the ACC title game for the second season in a row, and may be looking at this contest as a weak consolation. Of course, Matt Ryan went off to the Atlanta Falcons, and there was tremendous disappointment when Chris Crane went down with a collarbone injury. Dominique Davis, who was put in the unenviable position of stepping in for Crane, completed just 47% of his passes.

Still, we see this as a fundamentally bad matchup for Vandy. Between their two quarterbacks, McKenzi Adams and Chris Nickson, they had just 13 TD passes and eleven interceptions, and 1427 yards total. Is that much better than what BC has to offer? They are likely going to have to be, because the Eagles shut down the run pretty well (2.9 ypc and 92 ypg allowed). There will be a major challenge for the Commodores to move the ball through the air as well, as Boston College, which permitted opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56% of their passes, logged 26 interceptions with only nine TD passes allowed. How will Vanderbilt, which ranked 117th in total offense, move the ball?

They shouldn’t, and at least BC has the makings of an infantry with running back Montel Harris, who topped the 100-yard mark in three of his last five games (832 yards in total). The Eagles have two of the best defensive players in the entire country in lineman B.J. Raji and linebacker Mark Herzlich. They’ve won eight straight bowls too. We’ll lay it with Boston College, the 3.5-point favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook NCAA college football betting odds.

Our PLAY: BOSTON COLLEGE -3.5 ***

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