Wolverines vs Buckeyes NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
Michigan has not beaten the Buckeyes in their last 5 games at Ohio State and they will have to snap that streak in order to have any chance to play in the Big 10 title game. However, they will know their fate Friday, as they also need Nebraska to lose to Iowa.
Venue/ Stadium: Ohio Stadium, COLUMBUS, OH
Time/Date: 12 PM EST Sunday, November 24, 2012
NCAAF Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: MICH +145 / OSU -165
Spread: Ohio State -3.5
Over/Under: 55
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No. 19 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes Preview
OSU is ineligible for bowl play, but if they win out and get some help they still can win the Associated Press national title. NCAAF lines have Ohio State as the 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 55.
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In their last games Michigan crushed Iowa 42-17 and Ohio State beat a solid Wisconsin team 21-14 in overtime.
On the season Michigan is 5-6 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 6-5 and Ohio State is 6-5 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 6-5.
Devin Gardner is 3-0 since taking over for Denard Robinson and both of his top targets are averaging over 18 yards per catch. Robinson can go, but with an elbow injury, but he will likely line in the backfield since RB Fitzgerald Toussaint is injured. Robinson is the leading rusher for Michigan and he had 98 rushing yards in the Iowa game. RB Thomas Rawls may get some carries as well, but in the Iowa win he failed to average over 3 yards per carry. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Ohio State only ranks 84th in the nation in pass defense, but they have a solid run defense ranking 17th in the nation in that department.
Michigan’s pass defense is the top ranked unit in the country, but their run defense only ranks 51st in the nation. That is a concern for the Wolverines facing QB Braxton Miller, who leads the Buckeyes in rushing yards, and RB Carlos Hyde, who has been solid in the last few games. In the win over Wisconsin Miller had a great game rushing for 100 yards, passing for 234 yards, and had 3 TD’s.
Ohio State has a good WR corps led by WR Devin Smith, who is averaging nearly 20 yards per catch on the season. Still, while the Wolverines have a great pass defense their pass rush is not very good so Miller will likely have time to find his targets.
In some betting trends for this Big 10 rivalry match up Michigan is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 Big 10 games, 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games, and they have an Under record of 11-5 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record.
Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and they have an Under record of 5-0 in Buckeyes last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jason’s Pick: Have to go with Ohio State since they have a solid offense and Michigan is playing their backup QB with their starting QB playing RB.
