CFB Handicapping: Michigan Wolverines vs Illinois Fighting Illini
It has been a nice first season for the Brady Hoke crew in Ann Arbour. They beat Notre Dame and should qualify for a bowl game that will give them a respite from the Michigan winter cold.
Wolverines vs. Fighting Illini
Memorial Stadium – Champaign, IL
Saturday November 12 – 3:30PM
Moneyline: Michigan -117, Illinois -113
Spread (ATS): PK
Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Michigan
Last week they lost at Iowa and now they are on the road again visiting an Illinois team that is desperate to stop the bleeding. This group needs to finish strong but their schedule is backloaded with Nebraska and Ohio State after this one.
For the Wolverines to win they will need a big game from QB Denard Robinson. That may sound obvious but he has been pretty lifeless lately and is third worst in the nation with 12 interceptions – a figure that is worse than you think because he doesn’t throw the ball all that often. Big Blue might be missing top running back Fitzgerald Toussaint this weekend placing additional burden on Robinson.
Last year these two played one of the most thrilling games of the season, won by Michigan 67-65. Although we have seen some explosive performances lately I think this game will be a little more staid. There doesn’t seem to be any discernible patterns for when these programs meet except for Michigan winning. They have won 7 of the last 10.
Illinois
For a month and half Illinois was following through on its super sleeper status in the Big Ten. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
But after three straight losses, all of them puzzling, they are now looking to regroup and finish strong. Over the losing streak their offense has completely evaporated. They haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of the last three games after not scoring less than 17 in any of their first 6.
It should be no surprise that QB Nathan Scheelhaase has been abysmal over the losing streak. Last week he completed only 9 passes for a grand total of 63 yards. He seems to be falling into the trap many running QBs do of not being willing to take yards on the ground when they are there. I am sure the Illini staff want him to evolve but he is a superlative athlete and shouldn’t fight the instincts. It is hurting the team.
What is not hurting the team is the defense. Illinois is 6th in yards alllowed and 13th in points at just 17 per game. They are 15th in the nation in rushing defense allowing 102 yards per game and if they can restrict Michigan in that area they may be able to win, even with another poor offensive showing. Also, Michigan may have won 7 of 10, but Illinois has won two of the last three including the last one in Champaign two years ago.
ATS Pick: Illinois
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Illinois 28 – Michigan 24
