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Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida St. Seminoles Week 11 Free Pick

Venue / Stadium Doak Campbell Stadium, TALLAHASSEE, FL

This season has not gone according to plan with these 2 teams from the Sunshine State, as Miami is still one win away from being bowl eligible at 5-4 and FSU is at 6-3 and had legit BCS hopes this season.

Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, November 12, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Miami +290 / Florida State -350
Spread (ATS): Florida State -9
Over/Under: 50.5

Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles Preview

Still, Florida State has bounced back from their early season 3-game skid by winning their last 4 games all in blowouts. NCAAF lines have FSU as 9-point home favorites with a total of 50.5.

In their last games Miami crushed Duke 49-14 and Florida State had no time beating Boston College 38-7.

The Hurricanes have a well-balanced offense, as they rank 67th in the nation in pass offense and 59th in run offense. They racked up 467 yards in the win over Duke including an impressive 265 rushing yards. RB Lamar Miller rushed for 202 yards last week and he may the key guy the FSU defense has to contain and they may be successful doing it since their run defense ranks 3rd in the nation.

Florida State also has a good pass defense ranked 22nd in the nation and Miami will need a good, and maybe great game, from QB Jacory Harris and this is especially the case if the Seminoles stuff the run.

The Miami offensive line has to play well in this game, as they face a Florida State pass rush that ranks 5th in the nation with 30 sacks. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

FSU QB E.J. Manuel leads the Seminoles and their 19th ranked passing offense and he has a couple of big play WR’s in Rodney Smith and Rashad Greene, who are each averaging over 17 yards per catch this season. Smith is 6’6″ and will create match up problems for Miami and their 39th ranked pass defense.

The Seminoles do not have a great rushing offense, but they may want to try hitting the ground more often in this game, as the Miami run defense only ranks 81st in the nation. Freshman RB Devonta Freeman has shown signs of being a solid RB this season with 2 games rushing for over 100 yards and he may have a chance to add to that total against a struggling Canes’ run defense.

Betting Trends

This season Miami is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-3 and FSU is also 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.

Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, and has an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 home games as a favorite.

The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

Jason’s Pick: Have to go with FSU since they are rolling and have a better defense. The Over is also the pick, as I think FSU will light up the scoreboard and Miami will not be shut out.

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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.