TCU vs Baylor Free Week 1 College Football Pick + Betting Preview
In the season opener for both teams Baylor is a dark horse in the Big 12 conference behind their Heisman candidate QB while TCU has National Title hopes, but has to get by Baylor on the road in this game as well as deal with Boise State later in the season.
Venue | Stadium: Floyd Casey Stadium, WACO, TX
Time/Date: 8 PM EST Friday, September 2, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: Baylor +165 / TCU -190
Spread (ATS): TCU -6.5
Over/Under: 55
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No. 14 TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Preview
CFB lines have the visiting Horned Frogs as 6.5 point favorites in this game with a total of 55.
Last season at TCU the Horned Frogs mauled the Bears 45-10 giving up almost 300 rushing yards and if that happens again Baylor will be crushed. The Horned Frogs have covered the spread in their last 4 games facing Baylor.
TCU has not lost a regular season game since 2008 and has 2 BCS bowl appearances since that time, but this season they face some uncertainty with a new QB in Casey Pachall and many new starters on both sides of the ball.
For Baylor it is all about QB Robert Griffin III, who passed for over 3,500 yards last season and was the Bears 2nd leading rusher with 635 yards. One big loss for the Bears is Jay Finley, who rushed for 1,218 yards last season averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The RB trio of Terrance Ganaway, Glasco Martin and B.J. Allen will fill his big shoes and will be facing a stellar TCU run defense.
The Bears will be facing a TCU defense that led the nation last season in opponents’ yards allowed and points allowed. The Horned Frogs did lose 6 starters on D, but reigning MWC Defensive Player of the Year LB Tank Carder returns and the Baylor offensive line has to keep him off Griffin.
The Bears will likely have to light up the scoreboard to win since their D only ranked 104th in the nation last season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Baylor now has defensive coordinator Phil Bennett, who helped Pitt rank 8th in total defense in 2010, but can he turn things around so quickly? Baylor has some talent on D, but facing TCU they may be in trouble, especially against the run. The Horned Frogs return RB’s Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker and Waymon James, who combined for over 2,300 rushing yards last season.
This game is all about Griffin III and the suspect Baylor D, as if the later steps up and plays well there is a chance of an upset in this game.
Betting Trends
TCU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Baylor is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Baylor has some high hopes this season after making a Bowl game last season for the first time since joining the Big 12, but their D will not be able to contain the Horned Frogs rushing attack and Griffin will be stifled by the TCU defense.
Pick: TCU -6.5 and the Over
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