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Free Picks: #8 Michigan State vs. Purdue Gambling Lines & Handicapping Preview

Week 7: Spartans vs Boilermakers

Week 7 college betting action sees the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans taking on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Ind. Cappers Picks provides free college football handicapping tips all season long.

Entering this contest, both teams are coming off victories. Michigan State held off a late-game run from the ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers, winning 27-22, while the Boilermakers beat Illinois 38-27/

College Football Odds

#8 Michigan State (4-1) vs. Purdue (3-3)
Saturday, Oct. 11
3:30 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Ind.)
ABC/ESPN2
College Football Betting Lines: Michigan State -21
College Football O/U: 50.5
***2014 CFB BONUSES***
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Click here to view… ATS Stats & Expert NCAA Betting Prediction Insight!

Barring a major surprise, the Spartans should walk away with a win straight up. The question is: Will they be able to meet the 21-point spread they’ve been given with the weekend quickly approaching?

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Michigan State

The Michigan State Spartans have bounced back nicely following their Week 2 loss to the Oregon Ducks. Since then, they’ve gone 3-0 and have won by an average point margin of 35.3 points per contest.

On the year, the Spartans are winning by an average point margin of 25 points per game, as the team is posting 45.6 points per game and giving up just 20.6. Michigan State is 45th in the nation in points score per game and 32nd in points allowed.

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Although the Boilermakers are better at run defense than pass defense, the Spartans are more effective running the ball than passing it so far this season. Although their passing yards per game are 257.2 compared to the rushing numbers of 239.2, those numbers are 52nd in the nation and 23rd in the nation, respectively.

Purdue

The Purdue Boilermakers have had a season of ups and downs thus far. They’re average point margin is 1.5 per game in their opponents’ favor, but every contest has been won or lost by double digits at this point in the season.

Finding consistent offense is going to be step No. 1 against Michigan. The Spartans’ defense is going to be ready for a blowout, but if the Boilermakers can come out and move the ball down the field with any sort of regularity, it’s going to be a wrench in that plan.

On the year, Purdue is just 105th in passing yards per game, totaling 181.8 yards per contest in that category. On the ground, the team is 69th, going for 170 per contest.

Luckily for Purdue, the one aspect of its defense that has found some sort of consistency is run defense. That will be key in this contest, as the Spartans will try to use their top-25 run game to take down the Boilermakers on the road.

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NCAA Football Handicapping Trends:

  • PUR are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • PUR are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Under is 28-12-2 in PUR last 42 games in October.
  • MSU are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
  • MSU are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in MSU last 8 games in October.
  • Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Week 7 NCAA Football

The underdog has done well in this head-to-head matchup lately when it comes to ATS victories. That said, the Spartans are playing at an elite level, and even a high spread should result in a win against the spread for Sparty.

Free NCAA Betting Pick 4* Michigan State -21

Although it’s true that home crowds break out the best energy against top-tier opponents, it would take a major upset for Purdue to pull off a win. Taking it one step further, a 21-point spread should be within the Spartans’ reach considering how anemic Purdue has been on offense at times this season.

Expect the Spartans to come away with a win, and expect that win to be by at least three touchdowns.

Check out our Updated College Football Week 6 Odds.

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