Midshipmen vs Gamecocks Handicapping Preview
South Carolina’s Week 3 game against the Naval Academy offers a great opportunity for the beleaguered Carolina defense to have a resurgence and get on track after allowing 79 points over the first two weeks to East Carolina and Georgia.
Navy Midshipmen vs. #10 South Carolina Gamecocks
Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia SC
Saturday, Sept. 17, 6:05 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Navy +500, South Carolina -700
Spread: Navy +16.5, South Carolina -16.5
Over/Under: 58
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The Gamecocks offense has looked top notch, particularly the running attack under the purview of workhorse RB Marcus Lattimore and QB Stephen Garcia. But Carolina has to stop getting gouged so badly on the other side of the ball.
Navy offers a perfect chance for Carolina to brush up on its run-stuffing skills. The Middies hardly ever throw the ball and the run game is slightly damaged with the injury of Aaron Santiago, the third-leading rusher on the team who was averaging nearly seven yards per clip. Navy has two wins, coming against FCS Delaware and FBS bottom-feeder Western Kentucky. It hasn’t stopped Navy from ranking first in the country in rushing, of course (over 400 rush yards per game!) thanks to their patented option attack. But it’s no surprise that Navy hasn’t seen a team as talented as South Carolina to date.
Senior pivot Garcia’s tenure wearing Gamecock crimson as been up and down, to say the least – both in terms of performance and off-field issues. But Garcia has looked great in the past couple of weeks and with consistent performances from him, the Carolina offense takes a further leap forward. SC will always have a strong running game so long as Lattimore is healthy, but when Garcia can distribute the ball to dynamite WRs Alshon Jeffery and Ace Sanders, the Carolina offense can put points on the board early and often. In fact, Carolina should contend in the SEC right down to the wire, provided the defense can start pulling its weight. Defensive end/linebacker/defensive tackle/do-everything athlete Melvin Ingram is a superb player, but other than him the “D” has not shown enough to be SEC Championship caliber. If the defense can minimize the damage of Navy’s option attack, it should do wonders for its confidence moving forward. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Short of putting legendary QB Roger Staubach in a time machine, if Navy is to have any hope whatsoever in this game, it must control the clock with its grinding, multi-faceted run game and the defense must somehow find a way to force Garcia into mistakes – which he hasn’t done so far in 2011 but has shown himself prone to in the past. Regardless, it’s a tall order. The Midshipmen will doubtlessly get their yards on the ground, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to stop any element of the Gamecocks’ offensive volley. The fact the game is being played in the Palmetto State – in a stadium where the fans can smell the workings of a rapidly congealing SEC contender – is only a further aggravating factor for the Academy.
Navy has a hugely successful rushing attack and has shown up to play versus superior competition in the past, but coach Spurrier should have his players putting everything they have into this game, beating Navy soundly and moving forward confident not only that Garcia, Lattimore and Jeffery are on their games, but that the defense can show up as well.
Trends:
NAVY are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in NAVY last 8 games on grass.
NAVY are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games.
Over is 7-1 in SOCAR last 8 home games.
Over is 9-3 in SOCAR last 12 games on grass.
Over is 10-4 in SOCAR last 14 games overall.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 42, Navy 10
Over/Under Prediction: 52
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