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Free NCAAF Pick: Minnesota vs. TCU Gambling Lines & Preview

Week 3 Odds: Gophers vs Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs (1-0) host the Minnesota Gophers (2-0) in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday. Be sure to visit back often, as Cappers Picks provides the best free college football picks all season.

I’m a little surprised that the point spread got so big in this one already. On Sunday the opening spread on this game was TCU –10, but it moved up to –14.5 by Monday. It has now settled at –13.5 points.

Week 3 College Football Picks

Minnesota vs. TCU
When: Saturday, Sept 13th 2014 at 4:00pm ET
Where: Amon G Carter Stadium
TV: Fox Sports 1
NCAAF Week 3 Gambling Line: TCU –13.5 (-110)
NCAAF Week 3 Gambling O/U Line: 47.5 Points (-110)
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Minnesota has wins over Eastern Illinois (42-20) and Middle Tennessee (35-24).

The fact their defense has allowed 22 PPG against weak competition is worrying, as TCU will put them to a real test.

The Horned Frogs beat up on Samford (48-14). TCU was expected to have a fast paced offense this season and they lived up to that in week 1. They ran 96 plays on offense (50 Passes & 46 Carries).

As a comparison, the Golden Gophers have ran 119 plays on offense (29 Passes & 90 Carries) combined in both of their games.

The reason we’re seeing the big spread is because TCU runs so many plays.

Trevone Boykin is a dual-threat QB with speed and accuracy. He completed over 70% of his passes against Samford for 320 yards and 2 TD’s. He also ran the football 10 times for 29 yards and 1 TD.

On defense, Minnesota is allowing 255.0 PYPG (84th) and 190.0 RYPG (93rd). TCU will look to utilize a large RB committee and wear opposing teams down by keeping their RB’s fresh throughout the game.

That’s important when you’re running close to 100 offensive plays in a game.

I was also impressed that 13 players caught a pass for TCU against Stamford. Boykin has no problem spreading the ball around.

TCU is expected to have an improved defense this season and they were strong last year to begin with. In their first game the Horned Frogs allowed 143 total yards and only gave up an average of 1.9 YPC.

Minnesota is averaging 5.2 YPC. They have gained 466 yards on the ground on 90 carries and they already have 7 rushing TD’s. David Cobb is the offensive leader and he’s averaging over 20 carries per game.

Free NCAAF Pick: Minnesota vs. TCU

This one is tough. Almost 70% of the early action has been on the Golden Gophers, but the point spread has shot up for the Horned Frogs. This game comes down to which team establishes the tempo.

Minnesota wants to play a slow controlled game whereas TCU wants to run their offense quickly.

I think TCU defense will be able to shutdown Cobb and the Minnesota run game as well.

4* Free Play on TCU Horned Frogs –13.5 (-110)

The Golden Gophers are a solid road team, as they’re 6-1 ATS in their L7 away games. The trend that was most interesting to me is that TCU is 9-0 ATS after a bye week. Take TCU at –13.5 this Saturday.

Check out our Updated College Football Week 3 Odds.

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About Scott Jack

Scott is new to Cappers Picks, but has been in the industry for 7 years and he’s only 25 years old. He lives in Toronto, Canada and bleeds blue and white. He grew up playing sports and still has a love for the competitiveness.