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NCAA Football Pick: Michigan vs. Michigan State Gambling Lines & Preview

Week 9 Odds: Wolverines vs Spartans

The Michigan Wolverines 3-4 (1-2 Big Ten) take on in-state rival Michigan State Spartans 6-1 (3-0 Big Ten) on Saturday afternoon. Visit Cappers Picks for our free college football picks all season long.

This is the second year in a row where this H2H meeting just doesn’t excite me like it should. Michigan is a mess this season.

College Football Week 9 Picks

Michigan vs Michigan State
When: Saturday, Oct 25th 2014 at 3:30pm ET
Where: Spartan Stadium
NCAAF Week 9 Gambling Line: Michigan State –17
NCAAF Week 9 Gambling O/U Line: 49.5 Points

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They did end up winning last week against PSU (18-13) to snap their losing streak.

Last year MSU was only a –4 point favorite, but they dominated the game and won (29-6). Michigan is a mess, especially on offense. The effort has been fine on the field, but the team isn’t overly talented.

The offense has especially struggled. They average 21.7 PPG (108th), 175.9 PYPG (110th) and 164.1 RYPG (66th). Turnovers have also been a huge problem that has cost the Wolverines throughout the year.

The Spartans offense is rolling and their only loss this season was against Oregon. MSU is scoring 47.0 PPG (3rd). The offense is very balanced and is averaging 265.1 PYPG (42nd) and 260.0 RYPG (16th).


Michigan State has a powerful run game that’s led by Jeremy Langford. They wear down defenses at the point of attack and as the game progresses the Spartans pick up bigger chunks on the ground.

Both of these defenses are good. Michigan allows 21.4 PPG (30th) while the Spartans allow 21.6 PPG (34th), but MSU has played a tougher schedule. MSU also allows fewer yards per game than the Wolverines.

MSU allows 192.4 PYPG (19th) and 100.3 RYPG (8th) while UM allows 93.6 RYPG (4th) and 207.4 PYPG (36th). I think the Wolverines numbers would be bigger, but opposing offenses often work with short fields.

I expect the Spartans to establish the run game early with Langford. Michigan has a strong run-stopping unit, but MSU has a great o-line as well. Cook will get involved as well with play action passes.

The balance of the Spartans offense will win them this game, but the question is will they cover? This is a big spread and MSU has the Buckeyes on deck next week, which means they may look ahead to that.

Michigan knows that their season is basically done. They need three wins to make a bowl game and that isn’t a guarantee with the games left on their schedule, but I expect them to play strong this week.

4* Free NCAAF Pick: Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans

This is a huge rivalry and this is like a bowl game for the Wolverines at this point. They’ll want to win this game badly and while I don’t think that’ll happen I expect the defense to keep them in the game.

Michigan Wolverines +17 (-110)

Gardner has to limit the turnovers and make smart decisions or else this could get ugly, but if he does that the Wolverines defense is playing well enough to keep this within two TD’s by the end of the game.

Check out our Updated College Football Week 9 Odds.

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About Scott Jack

Scott is new to Cappers Picks, but has been in the industry for 7 years and he’s only 25 years old. He lives in Toronto, Canada and bleeds blue and white. He grew up playing sports and still has a love for the competitiveness.