Venue/ Stadium: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, NORMAN, OK
The Sooners (3-0) won last week, but their D did not look great, which is why they dropped to #2 in the AP poll after being in the top spot since the pre-season. They have the chance to move to 4-0 on the season and while Ball State (3-1) is not a football powerhouse they have won 3 of their first 4 games.
Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, October 1, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): Oklahoma -37
Over/Under: 60.5
Ball State Cardinals vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners Preview
NCAAF lines have the Sooners as HUGE 37-point favorites with a total of 60.5.
Ball State has lost 11 straight games against teams that are ranked in the top 25.
In their last games Ball State beat Army 48-21 and Oklahoma beat Missouri 38-28.
The Sooners may have dropped in the polls not because of their offense, but their defense, which gave up 532 yards to Missouri last week. However, can Ball State take advantage of that since their offense only ranks 70th in yards per game (388.3) and 71st in scoring (27.5 ppg)?
Yeah, the OU D struggled last week, but QB Landry Jones had a big game passing for 448 yards with 3 TD, but did have 2 INT for the 2nd game in a row. WR’s Ryan Broyles and Jaz Reynolds both played well last week each averaging over 11 yards per catch. Ball State has the nation’s 49th ranked passing defense and in their only game facing a legit passing team they were crushed 37-7 by South Florida giving up 372 yards in the air.
The Sooners also did not run the ball very well last week, but that may change this week facing a Cardinals’ run defense that ranks 105th in the nation and gave up 402 rushing yards to Army last week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Does Ball State have any chance in this game? Well, their offense is decent ranking 60th in passing yards per game and 57th in rushing yards per game. For the Cardinals to pull of the massive upset, or more to the point not get embarrassed, they will need good games from QB Keith Wenning (871 yards 7 TD 0 INT) and RB Jahwan Edwards (301 yards 6 TD).
Wenning will be up against a pass defense of OU that only ranks 95th in the nation, but the key for him having a decent game is their offensive line, which is way overmatched facing the big OU front line D.
Also, Edwards will get a lot of carries and if the OU run defense, which ranks 54th in the nation, gives up 241 yards on the ground then Ball State has a chance in this game, albeit a small one.
Betting Trends
Ball State is 2-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-2 and Oklahoma is at 2-1 ATS and an O/U record of 1-2.
Ball State is 1-4 ATS facing a team with a winning record and they have an Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 games.
Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater, and has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
Jason’s Pick: OU is not looking like the team that many picked to win the BCS title this season and while they will beat up on Ball State they will not cover the big 37-point spread. Take the Over as well, as each team will air it out often in this non-conference game.
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