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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – TCU vs Michigan State Gambling Prediction & Bowl Preview

Horned Frogs vs Spartans Football Spread/Handicapping

A curious matchup as both of these teams went from sleepers to disappointments pretty quickly.  Both are looking to finish the year on a positive note to set the tone for next season.

TCU Horned Frogs (7-5) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-6)
Saturday December 29
Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, AZ
Moneyline:  TCU -145, Michigan State +125 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread:  TCU -2.5
O/U:  40.5

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The TCU Horned Frogs went big time into the Big 12 this season and to me, more than proved that they belonged (nobody is threatening to boot Kansas down to DII).

Did they rack up another double digit victory season…No.

But when you consider the transition as well as the fact that they lost their starting QB to rehab part of the way through the year the results were pretty good…


Replacement QB Trevone Boykin has filled in admirably.  Though not the thrower of his predecessor he is a top athlete who knows how to make winning plays – and just a freshman too.

Next year they are going to have a real battle on their hands at QB assuming Casey Pachall comes back to the team.  The defense slipped this season which was the most noticeable difference compared to the TCU we are used to…

This is not the TCU team we have been accustomed to off late but it it still good.  I like them to win fairly comfortably so giving up a little chalk gives me little hesitation.

I think there is a real chance they blow out the Spartans who really struggle on offense.

Michigan State

The Michigan State defense lived up to expectations this year but the offense struggled all season long. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

That kind of 50/50 situation created a .500 team even in a mediocre Big Ten.  In fact they went just 3-5 in conference after back to back strong seasons.  Believe it or not this sleeper program only qualified for a bowl game on the last day of the season…Let’s start with the good.  The defense was 4th in yards allowed and 10th in points allowed at 16.3ppg.

Not littered with superstar talent it plays a hard physical style.

On offense, nimble bowling ball LeVeon Bell can be fantastic but the passing game was disappointing to say the least.  First year starter at QB Andrew Maxwell bided his time but was not ready for prime time after the graduation of Kirk Cousins…

It seemed unbelievable that the Spartans could be so bad on offense which is why bettors (myself included I think) kept betting them.

They finished 4-8 ATS and that was only after a 3-2 flourish to close the season.  They could easily win this one but you can’t have much confidence they are up to the task.

Spread Pick:  TCU -2.5
O/U Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:   TCU 27 – Michigan State 21  


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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.