Longhorns vs Jayhawks NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Texas Longhorns opened the season with three convincing wins against three teams they were supposed to beat. They then went on to struggle against tougher opponents, losing two of those four matchups.
No. 11 USC Trojans (4-1) vs Washington Huskies (3-1)
Saturday October 27, 2012
Memorial Stadium, LAWRENCE, KAN.
12:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Texas – 1500, Kansas +950 from Bookmaker
Spread: Texas – 21
O/U: 59.5
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Luckily for the Longhorns, they’re back to the bunny slopes this weekend, as they take their 5-2 record on the road against a 1-6 Kansas team that is arguably the worst program in the Big 12.
Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns have been one of the most dominant offensive teams in the country this season, and that was never more apparent than last week against Baylor.
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The team from Austin, Texas put up 56 points against the Bears, and they’re averaging 44.4 points per game on the year.
Kansas lacks a great defensive line, which means sophomore tailback Joe Gergeron should have a field day. The Jayhawks defense has allowed 185.4 yards per game on the ground this season, which is 89th in the country.
Texas has found themselves in detrimental situations this year when they’re forced to spread out their defense to match opposing offenses on the outside. Luckily for them, Kansas will not do this. The Jayhawks run an offense that is considered pro-style, and they don’t have much of a threat on the outside.
The Longhorns’ defense has struggled all year, but this week should be a refreshing reminder that their offense is good enough to blow lesser-quality opponents out of the water.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks won their first game of the 2012 season, but since then, they’ve fallen off the map with an 0-5 record. Kansas hasn’t had the easiest schedule, as they’ve played two teams in the top 10—three in the top 16—and they now face No. 23 Texas this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Quarterback Michael Cummings has been named the starter for Kansas this week. Dayne Crist, the 6’4” senior, had been the starter early in the year, but Cummings was officially inserted into the lineup as a starter last weekend against Oklahoma. He completed 10 of 21 passes for 111 yards and zero touchdowns with two interceptions. He’s unproven, but then again, Crist had just three touchdowns and seven interceptions in his time behind center.
Like the Longhorns, Kansas is allowing more than 30 points per contest—in fact, Kansas is 92nd in the nation in points allowed while Texas is dreadfully the 105th. The problem is, Kansas only averages 17.3 points, which is 117th in the nation.
The Jayhawks don’t have a single true weapon on offense. Their top player is arguably James Sims, who has carried the ball 101 times for five touchdowns.
Texas is an offensive powerhouse, and there should be no question as to whether or not the Longhorns will get their points. Kansas may score a bit more than they usually do, but there’s virtually no chance they keep up with the firepower that the Longhorns throw their way this weekend.
Trends
- Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
- Over is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Jayhawks last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- O/U Pick: Under 59.5
Score Prediction: Texas 48 – Kansas 20
