Tigers vs Gators NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The LSU Tigers have continued to slip in the rankings despite their 5-0 record, and a win against the No. 10 Florida Gators would do wonders for their BCS title hopes midway through the season. Oppositely, the Florida Gators are off to a sound start. These two SEC foes will meet in The Swamp on Saturday in one of the better matchups of the entire weekend.
No. 4 LSU Tigers (5-0) vs No. 10 Florida Gators (4-0)
Saturday October 6, 2012
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
3:30 PM ET
Moneyline: LSU -140, Florida +120 from BetOnline
Spread: LSU -2.5
O/U: 42.5
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LSU Tigers
The LSU Tigers haven’t lost a game this season, yet they continue to underwhelm on the field with each passing week. Last Saturday’s 38-22 victory over Towson looks impressive enough on paper, but a championship contender shouldn’t struggle against an FCS program at any point throughout a contest.
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LSU has five turnovers and 19 penalties in the past two weeks, as they’ve played sloppy, undisciplined football as of late. The defense for the Tigers has been solid, allowing just 12.6 points per game, and their offense has produced with 39.0 points of their own, but the past two contests have made many question just how elite this team actually is.
LSU’s running attack consists of Kenny Hilliard, Alfred Blue and Michael Ford, and they’re all going to be counted upon to help the team against the Gators this weekend. Having averaged the 18th most rushing yards in the nation as a team, the Tigers’ running backs have helped alleviate the weight that has been placed on first-time starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger.
Mettenberger is on the road for the second time this season—the first was a struggle against Auburn. The passing game has been subpar statistically, and one of the big reasons why is that Mettenberger simply holds the ball too long. The blocks up front haven’t been great, and the receivers haven’t been the sharpest, but if the junior quarterback can get the ball out quickly against Florida this week, he’s not going to feel as much pressure as he’s felt so far this season.
Florida Gators
The Florida Gators haven’t played a game since Sept. 22, meaning they’ve had almost two full weeks to rest and get healthy for their matchup against LSU.
Like the Tigers, the team from Gainesville has a solid rushing attack while the passing game has been below average all year. Posting 224.5 rushing yards per game (20th in the nation) to just 183 through the air (110th), you can expect this team to pound it out on the ground all game long. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Quarterback Jeff Driskel is a dual-threat option, so if the Gators can protect him, he’ll keep LSU’s defense honest.
LSU has struggled up to this point in the season, but the thing that they’ve had going for them up to this point is their defense—hey’ve allowed just 12.6 points per game.
The problem for the Tigers? The Gators have been just as good on the defensive side of the field\ and having a bye last week should have allowed Florida’s coaching staff more time to review film.
This week’s contest is a great chance for the Tigers to come out and prove they’re worthy of championship banter at this point in the year; however, it’s also a good way to prove they don’t belong if they come out flat.
On paper, this game belongs to the Tigers, but if you’ve watched them play uninspired football all season long, you just might lean toward a Florida upset.
Trends
- Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
- Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Gators are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 5-1 in Gators last 6 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a bye week.
O/U Pick: Over(or)Under
Score Prediction: Florida 24 – LSU 20
