Sun Devils vs Trojans NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The USC Trojans have not had the season that most expected them to have, as their loss last week to the Oregon Ducks was their third of the season. The team has now lost two games in a row, and they’re looking to finish the season strong, starting with the Arizona State Sun Devils this week.
Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) vs No. 19 USC Trojans (6-3)
Saturday November 10, 2012
Los Angeles Coliseum, LOS ANGELES, CALIF.
3:00 PM ET
Moneyline: USC -335, Arizona State +275 WagerWeb
Spread: USC -9
O/U: 65
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ASU has lost their last three contests, and at this point in the year, they’re simply looking to stay above .500 by the time the season comes to an end.
Arizona State Sun Devils
The Arizona State Sun Devils started their game last week against the Oregon State Beavers in strong fashion, but they ultimately fell short when OSU quarterback Cody Vaz took over late in the game. The team allowed 267 passing yards, which is more than 100 more than they’re used to giving up.
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The passing defense fell short against the Beavers, but it is the area that could help them upset the No. 19 USC Trojans. On the season, the Sun Devils are allowing just 161.6 yards per game throughout the air, which is good enough for seventh in the nation. USC quarterback Matt Barkley is arguably the best quarterback in the nation, as evident by his 484-yard, five-touchdown performance against Oregon last week. Defending the pass is going to be huge, especially with standout wide receiver Marquis Lee looking to make plays.
On offense, the Sun Devils have been good at putting the ball in the endzone. They rank 22nd in points per game this season (37.0), and they run an extremely balanced attack. USC is much better at defending the run than the pass—although they did allow 321 yards on the ground to Oregon’s Kenjon Barner last week. If last week’s performance against the Ducks proves to be an anomaly, than utilizing Taylor Kelly is going to be huge when it comes to taking down the Trojans. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans need to forget about what happened against the Oregon Ducks last weekend and remember what’s important: getting to the Pac-12 championship. Their BCS title hopes were officially squashed when they lost to Arizona, so regaining focus and winning out is what the team needs to do to put together a run for conference dominance.
Last week was beyond unusual when it came to USC’s defense. They allowed more points than any USC defense has ever allowed in the past, they conceded more yards than anyone has ever put on them and they gave up more yards on the ground to one player than ever before in the history of the program. This would be a concern if the Ducks weren’t such a special program, but luckily for them, Arizona State is no Oregon.
USC’s run defense will play fine against Arizona State, which means the game will come down to how well they defend the pass. ASU’s quarterback is dangerous, but not elite, which means if the Trojans can keep him in control, it’s up to USC’s offensive attack to take over.
The Trojans are putting up 36.8 points per game this season, and while that may be less than what Arizona State has done so far, USC has far more weapons to help them take advantage of the opposing defense. Marquis Lee and Matt Barkley have become one of the deadliest combos in all of college football.
If the offense in Los Angeles remains as potent as it was a week ago, USC should have control, even if their defense gives up points. Their season hasn’t been what they wanted it to be, but with their minds focused and their offense running the show, they should take control of the Pac-12 South starting this weekend.
Trends
Over is 4-0 in Sun Devils last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 8-2 in Sun Devils last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
O/U Pick: Over 65
Score Prediction: USC 38 – Arizona St. 30
