NBA Handicapping Predictions – Pacers vs Heat
The Pacers lost their first 3 games of the season facing the Heat, but they won their last match up. The Heat are the big favorites to win this series, but the Pacers have flown under the radar all season and they have no pressure on them since they are expected to lose.
Venue/ Stadium: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL
Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Sunday, May 13, 2012
NBA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Pacers +320 / Heat -400
Spread (ATS): Heat -8.5
Over/Under: 188.5
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat Preview
NBA lines have the Heat as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 188.5.
In their last games to close out their first round series’ the Pacers beat the Orlando Magic 105-87 and the Heat beat the New York Knicks 106-94.
This season the Pacers are 35-36 ATS and they have an O/U record of 36-33-2 and the Heat are 36-35 ATS with an O/U record of 27-42-2.
The Heat will have to play good defense in this game and series facing an Indiana offense that is averaging 101 ppg in their last 20 games.
In their last win over the Heat the Pacers killed Miami on the boards and that will be key in this game. The Heat lack a legit big man and the frontcourt starters of Granger, David West and Roy Hibbert are 6′ 9″, 6’9″ and 7’2″ respectively. LeBron James and Chris Bosh have to keep these guys from dominating the paint. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Heat did not play great after the All Star break mainly because Dwyane Wade and James settled for too many jumpers and they did not attack the rim. However, they did that in the New York series and the Pacers must play solid D on these 2 and if they can make them settle for jumpers and not let them in the lane they have a great chance to steal Game 1 in Miami.
Obviously the Heat are led by King Games, Wade, and Bosh, but the Pacers cannot let the other Heat players have good scoring games and they also cannot allow Mike Miller to get open looks from deep.
The Pacers are led by their frontcourt and their guards of George Hill, Paul George, and Darren Collison must knock down their jumpers so the Heat do not pack the paint.
In some betting trends for this Eastern Conference match up the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, and they have an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and they have an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jason’s Pick: The Pacers are a solid team and while I think they will give the Heat a good series they will not win this game. However, Game 1 will not be a blowout and the Pacers will cover.
