Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat Preview & Pick
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NBA Betting – Pistons vs. Heat
Date: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, January 28, 2011
Venue: American Airlines Arena, Miami, Florida
NBA betting favorite: Heat -10.5
Total: 191.5
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Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat
A few weeks back, during Miami’s 21-1 run, we were laughing at the distant memory of their 8-5 start. Now, the 21-run hot streak seems like a pipe dream. The Heat have lost five of six, with their only win over that stretch coming against an awful Toronto Raptors team.
Even though they’re at home, even though they’re facing the lowly Pistons, is it not a bit scary to see a team struggling this badly favored by more than 10 points?
The Heat at least haven’t gotten caught with their pants down against bottom dwellers much of late. Their losses during their slump have come to the Clippers, Nuggets, Bulls, Hawks and Knicks, all respectable opponents (even the Clippers). Independent of the spread, they should handle the Pistons – assuming they can jumpstart their offense. It seems Chris Bosh is more important to the Big Three than some detractors originally thought. The Heat have failed to reach 90 points during two of the three games he’s missed so far. 
While Detroit likely won’t win this game, it has to make bettors a bit nervous against the spread. The Pistons are 5-2 both straight-up and against the spread over their last seven games. They were 12-point underdogs at Boston on January 19 and lost by four; they were 12-point dogs at Orlando last week and beat the Magic by seven. Given the Heat’s struggles and the Pistons’ plucky play of late, I like them to stay within the 10.5 points.
Trends:
Over is 8-3 in DET last 11 Fri. games.
Over is 7-2 in MIA last 9 overall.
MIA are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.
Road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Prediction: Heat 99, Pistons 95
