NBA Finals Betting – Sunday Picks – Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks
It’s the biggest game of LeBron James’s career. Replacing the last one. And until the next one (if there is a next one this year). James has the big stage he has so coveted, and the 90 percent or so of the fans in North America who are rooting against him have plenty of ammunition.
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MAVERICKS vs. HEAT
Time: Sunday 8 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Arena, Miami
Spread: Heat -5.5
Over/Under: 187
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He has been worse than a non-factor in the fourth periods of Games 1 through 5, despite getting touches on every possession. The Mavericks know full well that any Heat player not wearing uniform No. 6 or 3 who takes a shot in the final three minutes risks being ostracized, so it’s Wade/James against the world, double- and triple-teams be damned.
“We play as a team, we played good enough to win again,” he said after the Game 5 loss in Dallas. “Put ourselves in position to win down the stretch. Everyone, guys made plays. They just made a few more than we did. That’s what it came down to.”
Except it doesn’t quite fly when it’s all about the Big 3 (or 2, depending how you feel about Chris Bosh) all season, then when losses pile up in the playoffs it’s suddenly the team’s problem. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
James’s problems were never so evident that in one possession in the final minute of Game 5, when the Mavericks were forced to switch and James found himself isolated on the left wing, with only the 6-foot-1, 37-year-old Jason Kidd between James and the hoop. Instead of taking it hard to the undefended hoop, James settled for an 18-footer that hit iron.
There have been way too many of those, especially in the fourth periods, during which the King has been outscored by Dirk Nowitzki, 52-11. And that doesn’t even begin to explain problems at the other end of the court, where Jason Terry had burned James more than a few times.
Can James get it done tonight? And if he does, can he do it yet again in Game 7? He’s made it all about him, and James is learning there is a downside to being the King.
NBA Trends:
DAL are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
DAL are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
DAL are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 Sun. games.
Over is 6-1-1 in MIA last 8 home games.
MIA are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
BEST BET: Oddsmakers have the money line at Miami -240/ Dallas +200 with the number -5.5, and those figures have bettors flocking to Dallas by a margin of 7-3. Games 1 and 2 in Miami both were low-scoring in the first half, and this one figures to be the same.
Liking an under play as every possession because a form of guerrilla warfare.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling expert from Massachusetts.
