MLB Thursday Preview – Cincinnati vs Houston
Before baseball gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this week, we have the Thursday MLB game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly baseball picks for online MLB betting action.
Season Record:
Cincinnati: 53-44 SU
Houston: 39-56 SU
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Cueto Tries For Win Number 10 Versus Houston
MLB Betting – Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
Johnny Cueto (9-3) vs. Roy Oswalt (6-11)
Cueto vs. Astros Hitting
An impressive string of starts has erased the slump Cueto experienced at the beginning of June. In Cueto’s last six starts, he has gone 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio during that stretch is pretty bad (19K’s/18BB’s), but he’s been able to pitch himself out of jams, and there’s something to be said about that.
If you’re looking for a solid sports bet, bet that Cueto will struggle against the Astros. In seven starts he’s 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA. Individually, Lance Berkman is hitting .385 (5-for-13) with 2 HR’s and 6 RBI’s off of Cueto. Michael Bourne is 5-for-14 with 4 RBI’s and two doubles. Even his pitching counterpart, Roy Oswalt, has success with the bat against Cueto (3-for-8, 1 RBI). The way things are going this year Cueto may finally be able to break this spell, but if history is any indication he’s in for a long day.
Oswalt vs. Reds Hitting
It’s unknown if Roy Oswalt will even be making this start, since he is a big commodity on the trade market, and has been heavily pursued by both St. Louis and Philadelphia. Don’t let his 6-11 record fool you; he would be a major acquisition for any team that wants him. He has 117 strikeouts as opposed to just 33 walks, and his 1.07 WHIP is over .10 under his career average. He’s having a stellar year playing for one of the worst teams in the National League.
Oswalt has pitched against the Reds this year and the results were ok. He pitched seven innings and allowed three runs and eight hits in a losing effort. Considering the Reds offense includes MVP candidate Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Rolen, three runs in seven innings is pretty impressive.
Brandon Phillips has been the guy who has the most success against Oswalt with a .343 batting average (12-for-35) against the righty. Joey Votto (.296, 1 HR, 5 RBI’s in 27 AB’s) has also seen success against Oswalt.
Bullpen Comparison
Outside of All-Star Arthur Rhodes (1.63 ERA), there isn’t much to love in the Reds bullpen. Closer Francisco Cordero has 26 saves, but has also blown six saves and sports a 3.92 ERA.
Micah Owings, playing his first season as a full-time reliever, has a 5.40 ERA. In fact, outside of Rhodes, no reliever with over 20 IP has an ERA under 3.90. It’s not a very healthy ‘pen for a team looking to make the playoffs.
Outside of closer Matt Lindstrom (22 saves, 2.61 ERA), it’s a pretty ugly bullpen in Houston. Two relievers with over 20 IP have 6.00+ERA, while six of them have an ERA over 4.00. There’s not much else to say; much like the team itself, it’s a pretty poor group of relievers.
Outlook
Whenever Roy Oswalt pitches the Astros have a chance to win, and playing against their favourite whipping boy in Johnny Cueto makes their chances that much better. But Houston hasn’t beaten up on Cueto in a year, and the team is much worse since then.
Cueto may not get the win, and he may even get rocked, but I’m betting the Reds are able to pull this one out.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.
