Gambling Preview: 2008 ALCS – Sportsbook.com
If familiarity breeds contempt, the ALCS between rivals Boston and Tampa Bay will be a great one beginning tonight.
The pitching matchup for Game 1 is Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka versus Tampa Bay’s James Shields. First pitch is set for 8:37 pm ET and Tampa is a slight -110 favorite.
The series odds from Sportsbook.com are Boston (-135) and Tampa Bay (+115) despite Tampa Bay having home field advantage.
In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9th in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2).
Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the opener in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division. Instead, Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later capturing the AL East crown.
Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season.
The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. They had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but always came up short.
That was until 2004. With a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management hired 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their General Manager and the farm system was immediately revamped and has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97 ERA) will pitch tonight in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with a 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12ERA) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles.
Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late, Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01ERA) will go in Game 3 and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13ERA) will start Game 4.
Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58ERA) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and the Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48ERA) is next being their most experienced member on the staff.
When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82ERA) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34ERA) will complete the initial go-round.
StatFox Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two-strike hits and two-out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS.
Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances to score if they continue the same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work the count, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.
The Red Sox are a tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series, but will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.
Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT
Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT
Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT
Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary
Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary
Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary
Offensive – American League
Runs scored Boston 2nd Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs Boston 6th Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases Boston 4th Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc. Boston 3rd Tampa Bay8th
Walks Boston 7th Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc. Boston 1st Tampa Bay 5th
Pitching & Defense
ERA Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts Boston 1st Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks Boston 6th Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc. Boston 4th Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts Boston 5th Tampa Bay 1st
Errors Boston 3rd Tampa Bay 4th
