Thursday MLB Baseball Picks: Tigers vs Yankees Game 1
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MLB Betting – Tigers vs Yankees Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, March 31, 2011
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Broadcast: ESPN, YES
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: Tigers +125, Yankees -145
Over/Under: 8
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Detroit Tigers (0-0)
Justin Verlander (2010: 18-9, 3.37 ERA)
After a disappointing 2011, the slightly retooled Detroit Tigers hope to bounce back strong and contend in the always-wide-open American League Central. While their depth could be a problem, the Tigers should at least get a chance to showcase their top-end talent on Opening Day.
Taking the hill is fireballing ace Justin Verlander. The big righty has won at least 17 games in four of his last five seasons and has back to back campaigns with 219 or more strikeouts. He’s right in the middle of his prime and sure to be a Cy Young candidate for the next several seasons.
Verlander does, however, have some concerning splits. He’s been a slow starter for most of his career. Discounting his one career March start, April is easily his worst month. In 25 April starts, Verlander is 7-11 with a 5.02 ERA. He’s also consistently worse on the road (36-32, 4.18)) than at home (47-20, 3.43) over his career.
If anyone starts the rally early against the Tigers, it may be Derek Jeter. The Yankee captain is a .368 lifetime hitter against Verlander.
New York Yankees (0-0)
C.C. Sabathia (2010: 21-7, 3.18)
The behemoth C.C. Sabathia predictably gets the nod for the Yankees on Opening Day and there may be more pressure on him than normal. The general consensus is that the Yankees’ rotation is a big question mark this season following Andy Pettitte’s departure and that Sabathia is just about the only sure thing. 
What is it about C.C. and his season debuts? He’s been rocked for at least five runs in each of his last three season-opener starts. That has to give some bettors pause. Sabathia will really have to watch out against the Venezuelan duo of Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. Miggy bats .538 with two homers and nine RBI over 13 at-bats against C.C.; Magglio has 17 RBI in 64 at-bats against him.
So will C.C. get the run support he needs? To do so, he’ll need a faster start from first baseman Mark Teixeira this season. The slugger is a .237 career hitter in April and hit a disgusting .136 last April with the Yankees.
MLB Trends:
DET are 12-4 in their last 16 Thu. games.
DET are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.
DET are 2-6 in Verlanders last 8 road starts.
NYY are 8-1 in their last 9 Thu. games.
Over is 6-2 in NYY last 8 home games.
NYY are 95-41 in their last 136 home games.
DET are 10-27 in the last 37 meetings in New York.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
The pick:
Even though we have two aces on the hill, I’d expect a high-scoring affair. I looked at Verlander’s recent Opening-Day game logs and he gets rocked just as often as Sabathia in his season debuts on average. So don’t be surprised if neither All-Star is on his game.
I’d expect a big day from Miguel Cabrera and new arrival Victor Martinez for Detroit – as well as a blast from the past from Jeter. It’s a coin flip but I think Miggy’s big bat will put the Tigers over the edge.
Tigers vs Yankees prediction: Tigers 9, Yankees 6
Money Line: Tigers +125
Over/Under: OVER 8
