Saturday MLB Baseball Picks: Tigers vs Blue Jays
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MLB Betting – Tigers vs Blue Jays Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, May 7, 2011
Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Broadcast: FSD, RSN
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: OFF
Over/Under: OFF
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Detroit Tigers (15-17)
Justin Verlander (2-3, 3.75)
To me, the Tigers have been very close to what I expected this season – and for the reason I expected. Detroit has some excellent top-end talent but its lack of depth is a major weakness. Miguel Cabrera is mashing, with a .339 batting average and 1.064 OPS through Thursday; Max Scherzer leads the team with five wins and a 3.15 ERA; and Justin Verlander has a team-high 51 strikeouts through 48 innings.
But the rest of the Tigers aren’t full pulling their weight. Victor Martinez is still on the DL with a groin injury. Alex Avila has replaced him admirably but Austin Jackson, Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn and Johnny Peralta have been easy outs.
Toronto Blue Jays (14-17 through May 5)
Ricky Romero (2-3, 3.00)
It’s been a strange season for the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re under .500 but not too far out of the hunt in the American League East. Jose Bautista has been arguably the American League’s best hitter when he was supposed to crash back to Earth. The Jays are 11th in homers after leading the majors last year – but are suddenly third in baseball with 35 steals as a team. The record may be roughly what people expected but the Jays are going about their business in an unexpected way this season.
Toronto has to be excited about Ricky Romero’s continued development. Opponents are batting just .228 off the lefty this season. The former first-round pick has also lowered his walk rate and his strikeout rate has risen over a batter per inning. Romero has allowed two runs or fewer in five of six starts this year.
MLB Trends:
DET are 15-46 in their last 61 games on astroturf.
DET are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
Over is 7-3-1 in DET last 11 Sat. games.
Under is 6-1-1 in TOR last 8 overall.
Over is 9-3-2 in TOR last 14 Sat. games.
TOR are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win.
DET are 15-31 in the last 46 meetings in Toronto.
The pick:
Justin Verlander is unquestionably an ace but has really struggled against Toronto in his career, allowing 23 runs in 31 innings (6.68 ERA) with six homers allowed. The guy who does most of the damage: Adam Lind, who happens to be Toronto’s hottest hitter right now. Lind is 4 for 12 with a pair of homers and seven RBI against Verlander.
I think he can lead the Jays past Verlander and the Tigers – but it might be a high-scoring affair. Romero is “tentative” to start because of an oblique strain. Assuming he does pitch, he may not be 100 per cent.
Tigers vs Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays 7, Tigers 5
