Sunday MLB Baseball Picks: Mets vs Phillies
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Sunday Night Baseball Betting – Mets vs Phillies Preview & Pick
Date: May 1, 2011
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: ESPN
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: Phili -172
Over/Under: 7 (-115)
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New York Mets (11-14 through April 28)
Chris Young (1-0, 2.65)
The Mets are heating up in the National League East, winning six of seven through Thursday’s action. The key has been New York’s offense, which has rebounded after struggling last season. David Wright has five homers; Jose Reyes looks like his vintage self, batting .321 with 18 runs scored and eight steals in 25 games. The big story has been Ike Davis; the sophomore is batting .352 with an OPS over 1.000. Jason Bay’s return from injury has provided a boost, too.
The Mets’ starting pitching has left a lot to be desired but Sunday’s probable starter, Chris Young, has just about been the only bright spot. The 6’10” righty has held opponents to a .167 average over his three starts. The only thing he has to correct is walk rate; he’s allowed eight free passes in just 17 innings. Historically, Young tends to pitch around the Phillies. He’s walked them 16 times in 33.1 innings. 
Philadelphia Phillies (16-8 through April 28)
Cliff Lee (2-2, 4.18)
You’d never guess it based on the record and ERA but Cliff Lee has been mostly dominant for the Phillies so far this season. He has at least 11 strikeouts in three of his five starts and his K:BB ratio over 32.1 innings is 39:4. He just has to curb his homer rate.
Lee could also use some better run support. Placido Polanco’s .389 average paces the team but the big guns have gone a bit silent. Jimmy Rollins is batting just .271 with one homer; Ryan Howard has 21 RBI in 24 games but only one long ball in his last 14 games.
MLB Trends:
NYM are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
PHI are 57-20 in their last 77 Sun. games.
PHI are 50-20 in their last 70 overall.
PHI are 50-20 in their last 70 games on grass.
The pick:
The Mets’ lineup is genuinely impressing me of late but Cliff Lee is overdue to get rewarded for his stellar work so far this season. Young may also get himself into trouble with his walks. I think Lee will get the run support he needs to win on Sunday – though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he served up another tater or two.
Phillies vs Mets prediction: Phillies 6, Mets 5
