Sunday MLB Baseball Picks: Reds vs Braves
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Sunday Night Baseball Betting – Reds vs Braves Preview & Pick
Date: May 29, 2011
Venue: Turner Field, Atlanta, GA
Broadcast: ESPN2
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Lines from Betonline.com
Money Line: Atlanta -138
Over/Under: 7.5 (-115)
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Cincinnati Reds (26-25 through May 26)
Johnny Cueto (2-1, 2.19)
The Cincinnati Reds were passed in the standings early this season by the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers have followed suit thanks to their recent hot streak. Despite their consistently potent offensive outputs, led by National League home-run leader Jay Bruce, the Reds continue to lose ballgames.
Pitching has been their Achilles’ heel, as I discussed earlier this week. Homer Bailey was one of the few saving graces; he sprained his shoulder yesterday. It looks like the only healthy guy getting the job done on the hill right now for Cincy is Johnny Cueto. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since returning from the DL. It was a little odd to see him strike out just one batter his last time out against the Phillies, however.
Atlanta Braves (28-23 through May 26)
Jair Jurrjens (6-1, 1.56)
The Braves have performed like the complete opposite of the Reds this season. Their pitching has been absolutely superb. Jair Jurrjens has been amazing, walking one batter or fewer in six of his eight starts this season.
But Atlanta’s offense is still a real work in progress. Pluggers like Eric Hinske and Joe Mather have kept the team afloat of late; Freddie Freeman and Martin Prado are coming around. But Jason Heyward was supposed to be the engine driving the Braves’ lineup and he just can’t stay off the disabled list.
Dan Uggla has also been a real nightmare for the Braves this season. The slugging second baseman is batting .163 this month and probably longs for the “good old days” when he hit .202 in April.
MLB Trends:
CIN are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
CIN are 2-9 in their last 11 games on grass.
Over is 12-3-1 in CIN last 16 overall.
ATL are 13-3 in Jurrjens’ last 16 home starts.
Over is 7-2-1 in Jurrjens’ last 10 Sun. starts.
Over is 22-8-1 in the last 31 meetings in Atlanta.
The pick:
I’m having trouble trusting the Braves’ lineup these days – especially against an above-average hurler like Cueto. I’m also wondering if Jurrjens is due to lay his first egg of 2011. He’s really struggled against Cincy in the past, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA for his career. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen each have an OPS over 1.000 against him (albeit in limited action). And Bruce is dialed in against everyone at the moment.
I like the Reds to solve Jurrjens and get back on track in front of the national audience on Sunday night.
Reds vs Braves prediction: Reds 6, Braves 3
