Tuesday MLB Baseball Picks: Cardinals vs Cubs
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MLB Betting – Cardinals vs. Cubs Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, May 12, 2011
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Broadcast: FSMW, CSN
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Cardinals -155, Cubs +145
Over/Under: 9 (-110)
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St. Louis Cardinals (21-15 through May 10)
Jaime Garcia (4-0, 1.99)
It’s scary to imagine how many wins the St. Louis Cardinals would have if Adam Wainwright wasn’t out with Tommy John surgery. They still lead the National League Central with 21 wins. They lead baseball in runs per game and batting average even though Albert Pujols hasn’t hit his stride. They’re even ninth in ERA despite supposedly having a patchwork rotation without Wainwright.
A big reason for that last stat: Jaime Garcia. He’s been among baseball’s best starters this season, striking out four times as many hitters as he’s walked and already posting two complete-game shutouts through seven starts.
It certainly looks like Garcia is here to stay as a well-above-average major-league pitcher. But when will his statistical regression come? Last season, he had a 1.04 ERA in April and 1.53 ERA in May before ballooning to 4.50 for June. This season, Garcia was finished at 2.08 for April and sits at 1.58 for May. Given his trends, he may have a few more dominant outings in him before teams catch up to him.
Chicago Cubs (15-19 through May 10)
Casey Coleman (1-2, 6.29)
The Cubbies’ 2011 season reminds me of the old leak-in-the-wall analogy. They fix one problem and another leak springs. For example, starters like Matt Garza and Carlos Zambrano have shown signs of getting back on track but, suddenly, hot-hitting Starlin Castro has gone cold as ice.
What should bettors expect from Casey Coleman on Thursday afternoon? He’s walked 16 guys in 24.1 innings and has coughed up at least four runs in three of his five outings.
MLB Trends:
Over is 11-4 in STL last 15 overall.
Over is 11-4 in STL last 15 on grass.
Over is 33-16-2 in STL last 51 road games.
CHC are 2-6 in their last 8 home games.
Under is 8-3 in CHC last 11 overall.
Under is 8-3 in CHC last 11 on grass.
STL are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.
The pick:
Maybe I’m oversimplifying but the Cards feel like a no-brainer here. They’re playing with confidence, they’re sending one of the league’s hottest pitchers to the hill, and they’re facing an erratic, unproven young pitcher with a slumping offense backing him up.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction: Cardinals 6, Cubs 2
Money Line: Cardinals -155
