2012 MLB Handicapping: Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays may not be the flashiest of teams and they may not have made ground breaking free agency moves in the offseason but they are somehow still a force to be reckoned with in the AL East.
Odds to Win American League Pennant: +1000
Odds to Win World Series: +1800
Key Additions:
C Jose Molina, RHP Josh Lueke, RHP Burke Badenhop
Back for 2012: RHP Joel Peralta, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, RHP James Shields, LHP Matt Moore
Key Subtractions:
OF Johnny Damon, C Kelly Shoppach, 1B Casey Kotchman, C John Jaso, 1B Dan Johnson, RHP Andy Sonnanstine, RHP Juan Cruz
The team has made the playoffs in three of the last four years through development rather than big money acquisitions. The offense isn’t likely to frighten a lot of teams but the pitching staff, particularly the starters should be among the finest in the American League again.
Let’s start with the offense and what we can expect from the batting order this season.
Projected batting order
1. LF Desmond Jennings:
.259 BA, .356 OBP, .449 SLG, 10 HR, 25 RBIs in 2011
2. CF B.J. Upton:
.243 BA, .331 OBP, .429 SLG, 23 HR, 81 RBIs in 2011
3. 3B Evan Longoria:
.244 BA, .355 OBP, .495 SLG, 31 HR, 99 RBIs in 2011
4. 1B Carlos Pena:
.225 BA, .357 OBP, .462 SLG, 28 HR, 80 RBIs in 2011
5. 2B Ben Zobrist:
.269 BA, .353 OBP, .469 SLG, 20 HR, 91 RBIs in 2011
6. DH Luke Scott:
.220 BA, .301 OBP, .402 SLG, 9 HR, 22 RBIs in 2011
7. RF Matt Joyce:
.277 BA, .347 OBP, .478 SLG, 19 HR, 75 RBIs in 2011
8. C Jose Molina:
.281 BA, .342 OBP, .415 SLG, 3 HR, 15 RBIs in 2011
9. SS Sean Rodriguez:
.223 BA, .323 OBP, .357 SLG, 8 HR, 36 RBIs in 2011
BJ Upton and Evan Longoria are the studs of the lineup again this season but a couple of sneaky moves – the addition of ex-Ray Carlos Pena and Luke Scott should add some legitimacy to the lineup. Pena was good for the Rays before and after one season in Chicago will return with lofty expectations. Catchers Kelly Stoppach and John Jaso were replaced by the much lighter hitting Jose Molina. What Molina lacks in hitting prowess, he more than makes up for in his ability to handle young pitchers.
All in all, Tampa should be formidable, not tremendous up and down the batting order this season. If the pitching staff lives up to expectation, the hitters should be able to do enough in order for the rays to win their share of games.
Now for the pitchers!
Projected rotation
1. James Shields, 16-12, 2.82 ERA in 2011
2. David Price, 12-13, 3.49 ERA in 2011
3. Jeremy Hellickson, 13-10, 2.95 ERA in 2011
4. Jeff Niemann, 11-7, 4.06 ERA in 2011
5. Wade Davis, 11-10, 4.45 ERA in 2011
6. Matt Moore, 1-0, 2.89 ERA in 2011
The Rays enter the season with their usual stable of young, electric arms. James Shields was brought back, David Price is an absolute Stud despite finishing sub – .500 last season, Jeremy Hellickson burst on the scene last year and will be looking to build on a sensational rookie campaign and Jeff Neiman is one of the more solid #4 starters in the game. Add in the enormous potential of Matt Moore who is one of the most promising prospects in the game and Wade Davis and the Rays look absolutely set with their rotation. Are they elite? Possibly but the inexperience forces us to take a “wait and see” approach on Tampa’s starters. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Projected bullpen
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth, 25/31 saves, 2.18 ERA in 2011
RH setup man: Joel Peralta, 2.93 ERA in 2011
LH setup man: J.P. Howell, 6.16 ERA in 2011
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is solid, not spectacular but hopes for this team are that the starters will be able to work late into games. The team took on another project – Fernando Rodney who could be a difference maker if he can regain his 2009 form but that is a big IF. Joel Peralta will be fine as will J.P. Howell who will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2011.
The Rays closer role looks to belong to Kyle Farnsworth who, like the rest of the pen is solid but not all that spectacular.
2012 Tampa Bay Rays Prediction:
The Rays are a team that has a knack of revamping their lineup and finding success. This year should be no different. On paper, this team appears to be far behind the Yankees and the Rex Sox in the AL East but on the field they somehow find a way to compete.
The Rays will be typically competitive again this year. I see a third place finish in the AL East – the Yanks and the Sox make it a bit unfair don`t they?
