MLB Betting – D-Backs vs Brewers Game 1 NLDS Preview & Pick
Make no mistake; of the eight teams to reach the 2011 postseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks are the most forgotten and the biggest underdog.
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Date: Saturday, October 1, 2011
Venue: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Broadcast: TBS
Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Lines from BetUS.com
Money Line: Diamondbacks +125, Brewers -145
Over/Under: 7
Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68; series tied 0-0)
Ian Kennedy (Regular season: 21-4, 2.88)
The Cardinals and Rays struggled more to reach the big dance, sure, but they enter October baseball as hot as any team. The D-Backs are the dogs.
However, they’re barely dogs in Game 1 at Milwaukee with Ian Kennedy, a Cy Young candidate, on the hill. The former New York Yankees prospect put it all together this season, winning an incredible 21 games. In true ace fashion, he had a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. Kennedy was 12-1 with a 2.11 ERA over the All-Star break.
Kennedy faced the Brewers once this season, beating them with seven scoreless innings. However, that win came at Chase Field. Milwaukee is a monster at home and Kennedy allowed 10 homers on the road in 96 innings this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (96-66; series tied 0-0)
Yovani Gallardo (Regular season: 17-10, 3.52)
The Brewers did very well to earn home field for the National League Division series. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
No team was better in its own stadium than Milwaukee this season. The Brew Crew were a major-league best 57-24 at Miller Park, winning five more home games than any other team.
Zack Greinke is probably the Brewers’ best pitcher but, judging by the numbers, Yovani Gallardo was an obvious pick to start Game 1. He was a comfy 10-2 with a 3.00 ERA at home this season. Aside from his ugly April, he’s pitched like an ace.
More importantly, he has absolutely obliterated the Diamondbacks in his career. Gallardo is 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 30 innings versus Arizona. Wow.
The pick:
I don’t see how we could possibly bet against Gallardo in Game 1, especially with the Brewers playing at home. This should be a low-scoring affair, as Kennedy has the steely nerves to hold his own in his first career playoff start. Don’t be surprised if Prince Fielder plays hero and takes Kennedy deep, however. He’s done so once in eight at-bats against Kennedy so far.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 1 prediction: Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 2
Money Line: Brewers -145
Over/Under: UNDER 7
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