MLB World Series Game 1 Free Pick – Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
The Philadelphia Phillies (99-72 SU, 76-89-6 O/U, 81-90 RL) and Tampa Bay Rays (104-69 SU, 80-90-2 O/U, 92-80 RL) will take square off at Tropicana Field tonight at 8PM Eastern for Game 1 of the 2008 MLB World Series in the BetUS Sportsbook and tonight’s pitching matchup figures to be a thriller with Phillies left-handed staff ace Cole Hamels (17-10, 2.92 ERA), going up against talented Rays lefty, Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.54 ERA).
Hamels has won all three of his postseason starts, allowing a grand total of three earned runs, including a masterful, seven-inning, outing against the Dodgers in their series-clinching Game 5 win of their NLCS matchup, allowing just one earned run on five hits while striking out five batters.
Kazmir has won one postseason start in three outings with two no decisions, though he limited the Boston Red Sox to no earned runs on just two hits in six innings of the Rays, colossal 8-7 loss in Game 5 of their ALCS matchup against their AL East rivals.
The Phillies, who have had a week off since finishing off the Dodgers last Wednesday, won the last two games of their NLCS showdown, both in L.A., but will have to bring their collective ‘A’ game against a Rays team that pounded out an unheard of 38 runs over a four-game stretch between games two through five against a talented Red Sox pitching staff, before closing out the series with a nail-biting 3-1 win in Game 7 on Sunday.
Philadelphia left-fielder Pat Burrell and center fielder Shane Victorino are batting a respective, .316 and .304 in the postseason with four home runs between them.
The Rays have four players batting over .300 since the postseason began and have seen center fielder B.J. Upton, (7) and third baseman Evan Longoria, (6) combine for a whopping 13 home runs in the postseason.
Here is a look at the key trends for Game 1, followed by my in-depth analysis and Online MLB Wagering Free Picks:
The Phillies are 4-0 in Hamels’ last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels’ last 6 starts.
The Rays are 5-1 in Kazmir’s last 6 interleague starts.
The Rays are 5-1 in Kazmir’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
The Under is 5-0 in Hamels’ last 5 starts overall.
The Over is 4-0 in Kazmir’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
The Phillies are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.
The Phillies are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.
MLB Odds
Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +150
Cole Hamels –L -105
Tampa Bay Rays +1½ -170
Scott Kazmir –L -105
Over 7½ +105
Under 7½ -125
Analysis: While the Phillies are on the road in this Game 1 matchup and are facing a red-hot Rays batting order, I like Philadelphia to win this contest with the best starting pitcher in this matchup going for them in Cole Hamels.
Simply put, I don’t see Hamels giving up more than two earned runs with Philadelphia winning a nail-biter in this contest!
