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Phillies vs Mets Betting Pick / Preview (Aug. 15)

Sunday Night Baseball Pick: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

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For the second straight week, ESPN Sunday Night Baseball treats us to one of baseball’s best divisional rivalries. The Mets are hanging by a thread in the National League East and need a strong showing at home to the hobbled Philadelphia Phillies if they want any chance at the division title.

The problem for them: the Phillies are surging even without their top two hitters.

Sunday, August 15, 8:05 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Phillies (64-50, 2nd place in NL East)
New York Mets (57-57, 4th place in NL East)

Kyle Kendrick and Mike Pelfrey don’t exactly amount to a dream pitching matchup. But the fact of the matter is that they’ve both found a way to win games for their teams this year and should battle hard.

Kyle Kendrick (7-5, 4.60)
Mike Pelfrey (11-6, 3.95)

Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick is nothing more than a mediocre innings eater but he gives his team a shot to win more often than not. Five of his last seven starts have been quality starts. He also won’t scare easily travelling to Citi Field, as he’s 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA on the road this season.

Kendrick has a respectable 3.34 ERA over seven career starts against the Mets but that number is misleading. He has an ugly 1.64 WHIP, yields a .290 batting average and has served up seven homers in 32.1 innings versus New York.

No Met gives Kendrick fits like Jeff Francoeur does. The free-swinging outfielder is a .409 lifetime hitter over 22 at-bats against him.

Mike Pelfrey is finally delivering on his first-round promise this season. The righty has really flourished at home, going 7-2, and has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park this year, allowing just nine homers in 136.2 innings.

Pelfrey cruised the last time he faced the Phillies, tossing seven scoreless innings, but he got lucky considering he walked five hitters in that start. He’s an adventure against that lineup more often than not, sporting a 4.83 ERA with 10 homers allowed in 63.1 innings.

The good news for Pelfrey is that his two main nemeses, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are both on the DL. Utley has four homers in 28 at-bats against Pelfrey; Howard hits .407 against him.

Considering that the two top-Pelfrey killers won’t play Sunday and that Pelfrey has been so good at Citi Field this year, the edge in this matchup goes to the Mets.

Sunday Night Baseball FREE PICK for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

Gambling Trends:

Philadelphia is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing NY Mets
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Mets are 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games

Pick: New York Mets

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Prediction (Shea Matthews’ record: 9-8)

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