MLB Lines – Reds vs Brewers
The teams in the National League Central division are embroiled in a razor-wire chase for the division crown; two teams in the thick of it meet in Beer Country on Tuesday night to do battle.
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 22 2014, 8:10 pm EST
Venue: Miller Park, Milwaukee WI
Cincinnati +110, Milwaukee -130
Over/Under: 8
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Pitching Match-up: Homer Bailey (8-5, 4.21 ERA) vs. Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 5.40 ERA)
Currently, every team in the Central except for the Chicago Cubs are still in the race. The Brewers (55-45) have a half-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals for first in the division.
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The Reds (51-48) are only 3.5 games back, yet they are fourth in the Central in a logjam behind the Brew, the Red Birds and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Milwaukee has already surpassed everyone’s expectations for 2014. The Brew Crew have done it thanks to a strong offense; they rank in the Top 10 in MLB in runs scored (7th), batting average (9th), and slugging (6th). Breakout performances from C Jonathan Lucroy, OF Khris Davis and the continued excellence of stars Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun are getting the job done in Wisconsin.
For the Reds’ part, they’ve been a three-headed monster this season, and it hasn’t really included superstar 1B Joey Votto.
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The Canadian one-bagger has been nicked up; when he’s been on the field he’s been having a down year (.255, 6 HR, 26 RBI). Cincy has instead turned to ace P Johnny Cueto, 3B Todd Frazier and rookie OF Billy Hamilton to lead the club.
Unlike a club like the Toronto Blue Jays, who enjoyed a strong month and then went into the dumps, the Brewers have ridden out the peaks and valleys of the marathon regular season with aplomb.
They need to continue to do that, in order to have a chance against the perennially-winning St. Louis ballclub.
On the mound Tuesday night, you have to give the slight edge to Cincy’s experience, though Homer Bailey has been only average since he signed his big-money extension before the season.
Milwaukee counters with youngster Jimmy Nelson, a hulking starter (6″5, 244 lbs) that should be getting good downward plane on his fastball, but hasn’t really translated it yet in the Majors.
In order to get the win, the home team should aim to out-mash the visitors. Bailey can be had lately and the Brewers have the power in the lineup to open up a margin in a hurry. The fact they don’t really know what they will get out of their starter is a blessing and a curse.
The Reds would be best to get Hamilton on the basepaths and let him put pressure on the young starter – maybe get in his head a little. Hamilton’s world-class speed will do that to the most poised starting pitcher; Nelson will be loath to put Hamilton aboard.
Cincy also must get some better defense on Tuesday night, after LF Chris Heisey was absolutely miserable in the field against the Brewers in the opening game of the series.
Everyone is waiting for Frazier to hit the wall and regress to where he was earlier, but the All-Star just keeps carrying the mail for Cincinnati. If he can drive in some runs, the Reds will like their chances of bouncing back after a sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees and a loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
Cincinnati 4, Milwaukee 2
Take the UNDER
