MLB Predictions: Reds vs Brewers Lines
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday in the opener of a three-game set at Miller Park. The Brewers are happy to return home where they are 19-13 this season following an eight-game road trip, while the Reds begin a stretch of 16 road games in 19 contests following a 10-game homestand.
Cincinnati Reds (31-34) at Milwaukee Brewers (40-27)
Date: Friday, June 13, 2014
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Venue: Miller Park
City: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
O/U Odds: 8
Money Line: Milwaukee -132, Cincinnati +122
Pitching Matchup: RH Homer Bailey (7-3, 4.60 ERA) at RH Matt Garza (4-4, 4.42 ERA)
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The Brewers send out Matt Garza in the opener of this series, and hope he can begin to turn things around in what has been a sub-par season thus far. Garza’s 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP pretty much tell the story of what has been a disappointing season for the veteran righty.
Garza has allowed 10 of the 13 opponents he’s faced this season to score three or more runs, including seven of the last eight. In his most recent outing in Pittsburgh, Garza allowed three runs on six hits, walking five and striking out only one in six innings of work.
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Garza has yet to face the Reds since joining the Brewers, but he did face them twice a year ago while with the Chicago Cubs. Garza surrendered 13 runs in nine innings of work in a pair of rough outings against the Reds a year ago.
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Homer Bailey counters for the Reds. He’s settled down some after a really rough start to the year. His last outing may have been his best of the year. Bailey allowed only one run in eight innings of work, surrendering six hits and striking out seven in a 4-1 win.
Bailey lasted eight innings in his lone start against the Brewers this season, giving up three runs on eight hits in eight innings of work in an 8-3 win for the Reds. He had some shaky outings against the Brewers a year ago, giving up 10 runs in 12 ⅔ innings in his first two starts against them, both Reds losses, but settling down in the next three outings against them, giving up seven runs in 21 innings, all Reds wins.
Brewers outfielder Khris Davis has had Bailey’s number in his career, going 5-for-11 with a double and two home runs against him.
Neither starting pitcher instills a ton of confidence at the moment, and the over has been a far more profitable proposition at Miller Park of late than it was earlier in the season. We could see some fireworks in this one with the Reds’ lineup
The over is 12-3-1 in the the Brewers’ last 16 games when playing the opener of a series, and it is 15-5-2 in their last 22 games overall.
The over is also 9-4 in Bailey’s 13 starts this season, and 4-0 in his last four starts against the Brewers.
The play: Over 8
