MLB Predictions: Reds vs Cubs Lines
The Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday in the first game of a three-game set at Wrigley Field. These teams will be meeting for the sixth time this season on Monday, with the road side claiming three of the first five meetings.
Cincinnati Reds (37-37) at Chicago Cubs (31-42)
Date: Monday, June 23, 2014
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Wrigley Field
City: Chicago, Illinois
Money Line: Chicago -108, Cincinnati -102
Pitching Matchup: RH Alfredo Simon (10-3, 3.05 ERA) at RH Jeff Samardzija (2-6, 2.60 ERA)
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The Cubs send out Jeff Samardzija for the opener of this series. Samardzija has played the role of tough luck loser for the most pert this season, compiling a 2-6 record despite a stellar 2.60 ERA.
The Cubs are just 3-12 in his starts this season. He’s quietly regressed a fair bit, though not many have taken notice.
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Over his last five outings, Samardzija has seen his ERA climb from 1.46 to 2.60. In those outings, he’s allowed 17 earned runs, while also giving up an additional four unearned runs. In his last outing, Samardzija allowed seven hits and no earned runs while striking out eight and walking three in six innings of work.
What that line doesn’t reveal is that he also gave up three unearned runs, and while Samardzija escaped with a no-decision, the Cubs did go on to lose the game. Samardzija’s faced the Reds twice this season, allowing four earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, but he also gave up an additional two earned runs. The Cubs lost each of those outings by a combined score of 7-3.
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The Reds counter with Alfredo Simon. He’s certainly due for a regression at some point this season, though don’t count on it against a light-hitting Cubs team. Simon’s led the Reds to wins in each of his last four starts and six of his last seven.
He’s actually been better on the road, where he has gone 7-1 in seven starts, posting a 2.66 ERA. In his lone start at Wrigley Field this season he allowed only one unearned run in six innings of work, suurendering only four hits.
Simon has already outdueled Samardzija twice this season, and there is no reason to expect a different outcome when the teams meet on Monday. Cincinnati comes in as the hotter ball club. They worked hard to get to .500 with a win on Sunday, and they won’t want to give up that distinction just a day later.
The under also looks like a fair play in this outing, depending on how the wind is blowing. Both pitchers have the ability to limit runs, and the Reds won’t have the luxury of facing the Blue Jays’ pitching staff in this one.
The Reds are 7-1 in Simon’s last eight road starts, while the Cubs are 3-13 in Samardzija’s last 16 home starts.
The Reds are 50-20 in the last 70 meetings between these teams, and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings at Wrigley Field.
The under is 6-2 in Samardzija’s last eight home starts, and 10-4 in Simon’s last 14 starts overall.
The play: Cincinnati -102, Under
