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Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Preview | Trends

Tigers vs. Twins Tiebreaker

Freddy Wills

Freddy Wills

The Twins finally caught up to the Tigers on Saturday, and they did not back off on Sunday winning while the Tigers won with Justin Verlander on the hill. Now it comes down to a tie breaker on Tuesday night between these two teams. The Twins won 11 of the 18 match ups this season and were 7-2 in Minnesota where they will be on Tuesday.The Twins were 48-33 at home this year while the Tigers were 35-46 on the road. Clear advantage to the Twins on those terms and the sports betting line is confirming that with the Twins at -163.


Pitching Match Up (Rick Porcello vs. Scott Baker)
Bet at 5Dimes

Rick Porcello has not been the same pitcher on the road that he has been at home. It’s not a drastic difference with a 3.87 home ERA and an ERA of 4.20 on the road, but he has pitched significantly worse at Minnesota than he has at home against the Twins. In two road starts he is 0-3 giving up 7 ER in 10 IP while allowing 15 hits and 3 BB’s. Twins collectively own a .290 average against Porcello led by Jason Kubel who is 8-11 in his career. Kubel was a major reason why the Twins won on Sunday as he hit two home runs, both three run home runs and went 3-4 with 6 RBI’s! Porcello who is 6-6 on the road and the team was 7-8 in his road starts. Pitching on the turf was not good for Ricky as he had a 6.60 ERA in 3 starts this year on turf. It will be Porcello’s most challenging spot as a rookie in the biggest game of his life facing a Twins team that is 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. right handed starter.

Scott Baker will go for the Twins on Tuesday for the 5th time this year. The 28 year old veteran will go up against the Tigers who he has a 6.75 ERA. I do not believe that the Twins deserve to be at -163, but that’s the odds we roll with on Tuesday. Baker who is 6-5 at home with a 4.55 ERA pitches better on the road despite his team being 10-6 in his home starts. He will have to duplicate what he did against the Tigers in his last outings which was go 5 innings and give up 0 ER on 5 hits and 3 BB’s. Tigers collectively have a .289 average led by Magglio Ordonez who is 18-39 against the RHP. Baker has identical numbers to what Porcello has on the road against the Twins as he has at home. He’s gone 10.2 IP giving up 9 ER on 15 hits.

You might think there is an advantage in the bullpen? However, looking at the match up both bullpens are pitching strong with the Twins having a 2.34 ERA in their last 10 and the Tigers having a 3.58 ERA in their last 10 games. This game is going to come down to one player stepping up and coming up with a big hit. I think both of these pitchers will come out like they did last week, and will pitch quality innings in the biggest game of the year for them. Will the Twins finally over come the Tigers for the division or will the Tigers jump on the plane again to face the New York Yankees?

Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Comments As Always Are Welcome Below…


Freddy Wills uses a betting philosophy that is backed by betting on an underdog that has a legitimate shot at winning the game outright. Although this varies from sport to sport, HE NEVER – EVER FORCES PLAYS!!!!



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  1. Matt Martz says:

    The Twins (86-76) lost a one-game playoff to the Chicago White Sox in 2008, but are –1-½ point favorites in this year’s match up against the Tigers. Minnesota leads the season series 11-7, including seven wins in nine games at the Metrodome.

    Minnesota has won 16 of its last 20 games including four straight wins to close the season, while Detroit, who led by seven games on Sept. 6, went a modest 11-15 down the stretch. The Twins are 48-33 at home and will also have history on their side, as four of the five one-game playoffs in the Wild Card Era have been won at home.

    The Tigers will go with 20-year old rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04 ERA) on the mound — who has been Detroit’s second-best starter after Justin Verlander since the All-Star break, while the Twins put their postseason on the shoulders of pitching ace Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA). Baker leads the Twins with 15 victories, but he hasn’t had a quality start (six-plus innings, three or fewer earned runs) in four outings against Detroit this season.

    Twins AL MVP hopeful Joe Mauer will have another opportunity to show what he can do to impact the outcome of Tuesday’s game. Mauer is hitting .364 with 28 home runs and 96 RBIs. The Tigers’ Ryan Raburn might be one of their most important players. Raburn came up huge with a two-homer game on Sunday, lifting Detroit past the White Sox in a 5-3 victory that set up the winner-take-all contest vs. Minnesota.

    The Yanks were the last to win a playoff tiebreaker and then win a World Series, against the Boston Red Sox in1978.