Atlanta Braves (28-18) vs New York Mets (17-27)
As this is being written the Mets and Braves were tied at 5 and in a delay in the 8th of this series opener. The Atlanta Braves are firmly in first in the National League East and are 7-3 in their last 10 heading into Friday night.
Saturday May 25
Citi Field – Queens, New York
4:15PM
Probable Starters:
ATL: Mike Minor (R)
NYM: Dillon Gee (R)
Moneyline: Atlanta -155, New York +145
O/U: 7.5
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Atlanta
Led by OF Justin Upton’s 14 dingers the Braves are second in the Majors in homers.
They are still waiting for OF B.J. Upton to come around but they are getting good production from the return of catcher Brian McCann and rookie Evan Gattis who used his absence to find a spot in the lineup
Atlanta has to be thrilled with what they are seeing out of Mike Minor this season. The former first rounder has been one of the better pitchers in the National League and if you throw out one really bad outing his numbers compare favourably with the best.
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He had one start against New York earlier this season and it was neither good nor bad but the Bravos took the loss. You can tell by the line that the oddsmakers don’t think that is going to happen again.
New York
The New York Mets come limping into the weekend having gone 3-7 in their last ten games.
The stark fact is that they have probably found their level after hanging in there to start the season. This year’s version of the Mets seems to fall into the classically bad model as they really can’t pitch or hit all that well – other than when Matt Harvey takes the mound. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
This lineup just has too many wholes as evidenced by the fact that they are giving regular playing time to Rick Ankiel in centerfield. That can’t be a good thing.
The normally respectable Dillon Gee has been awful this season. He has an ERA over 6 right now yet somehow the Mets are 4-5 in his starts this season. When he first came up to the Majors he had some success but I think by now his journeyman status is firmly established.
He sort of reminds me of Jake Westbrook, a pitcher I fade almost every time. There is not much reason to get behind Gee unless he starts to show something or the Mets are playing the Astros.
There are no guarantees in handicapping but this one seems easy to call. The Braves are the better team with the better hurler and the only reason to play the Mets is if you are playng all home division dogs.
That strategy can deliver a profit but you have to be on it al season long and not pick and choose.
It would be a good payoff.
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Atlanta 8 – New York 3
