MLB Betting – Yankees vs Tigers Game 5 NLDS Preview & Pick
As Detroit enters Game 5 of the American League Division Series, is it a case of “Will the real Doug Fister please stand up?” Or did we just see the real Doug Fister stand up in Game 5?
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MLB Betting – Tigers vs Yankees Game 5 Preview & Pick
Date: Thursday, October 6, 2011
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Broadcast: TBS
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees Betting Lines from BetUS.com
Money Line: Tigers +140, Yankees -160
Over/Under: 9
Detroit Tigers (series tied 2-2)
Doug Fister (0-1, 11.57)
To elaborate, Fister was unbelievable after arriving in Detroit via midseason trade, going 8-1 with a 1.75 ERA and walking just five batters in 70.1 innings. Before that amazing stretch, however, Fister was a pretty ordinary innings eater with the Seattle Mariners. In his playoff debut last week, though, the Yankees shellacked him for six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings.
So which Fister is the real one? I think it’s something in between the white-hot pitcher that allowed one or zero runs in each of his final eight 2011 appearances and the guy who imploded against the Yankees last week. In theory, Fister should be better. He has fantastic control and doesn’t allow a ton of homers for someone who pitches to contact. Entering the playoffs, however, he already had a 6.00 lifetime ERA against the Yankees. Do the Bronx Bombers just have his number?
New York Yankees (series tied 2-2)
Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.84)
The Yankees live! They were on the ropes on Tuesday, forced to win in Detroit with erratic A.J. Burnett on the mound, and the power righty delivered, holding the Tigers to one run as the Yankees romped 10-1. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
New York returns home hoping to win the fifth and deciding game and Ivan Nova will look for his second win of the series. He beat the Tigers – and Doug Fister – in Game 1, holding Detroit to two earned runs over 6.1 innings.
The pick:
On paper, the Yankees look like they’re in pretty good shape. But we have to delve deeper into the numbers before we’re sure of that. For one, Nova got a bit lucky in his first start, overcoming five walks. He didn’t have his best stuff. Though Nova was 8-2 at Yankees stadium this season, he had a mediocre 4.11 ERA and allowed 10 homers there.
Another factor to consider in Game 5: Justin Verlander. He and the Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia may both make themselves available out of the bullpen. Verlander in particular has the Yankees figured out, having struck them out 11 times in Game 4, and could give Detroit a major boost if he enters in relief.
I don’t blame anyone for picking New York at home, especially since the Yanks would turn to Mariano Rivera in the ninth with a lead. But I believe Fister will bounce back, Nova will regress, and Detroit will shock the world in Game 5.
Trends:
Over is 7-2 in DET last 9 on grass.
Over is 7-2 in DET last 9 overall.
DET are 13-5 in their last 18 road games.
Under is 8-2 in NYY last 10 games following a win.
Over is 7-2-1 in NYY last 10 playoff games.
NYY are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in New York.
Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings.
Tigers vs Yankees prediction: Tigers 5, Yankees 3
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