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Rangers vs. Yankees Betting Pick / Game 4 Preview (Oct. 19)

MLB Playoff Betting – Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Game 4 Preview & Pick – 2010 ALCS

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Oh, boy. If the Yankees weren’t nervous after losing Game 2 of the American League Championship Series, they have to be sweating after Cliff Lee utterly dominated them in Game 3 last night. Suddenly, they’re down 2-1 in the series and relying on the very volatile A.J. Burnett to deliver tonight.

Will the defending champs show their resolve?

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Game 4: Tonight, 8:07 p.m. ET
Tommy Hunter (Playoffs: 0-1, 4.50 ERA) vs A.J. Burnett (Regular season: 10-15, 5.26 ERA)
MLB odds: Rangers +137, Yankees -147

A.J. Burnett was openly upset about being left out of the starting rotation for the ALDS against Minnesota, so you know he’ll be anxious to prove himself tonight. But can he do it?

Burnett, blessed with blazing stuff and natural all-around talent, just couldn’t harness it this season. He served up 25 homers and opponents hit .285 off him. He won just once in his final 12 starts. In three different months, he had an ERA over 6.00 and lost three or more games. Looking at all those alarming numbers, you have to wonder if the Yanks should use Burnett at all.

However, Javier Vazquez would be an equally shaky option. Burnett also pitched well against Texas this season, going 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA over three starts. He has a respectable 3.66 lifetime ERA against the Rangers. Though he’ll always be homer prone as a flyball pitcher, he’s done a solid job against virtually all the Rangers’ top hitters. Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Cantu, Elvis Andrus and Bengie Molina all hit .250 or worse all-time against Burnett.

Last night, it didn’t matter how well Andy Pettitte pitched since Cliff Lee was on the hill for Texas. Will the Yanks face the same problem with Tommy Hunter tonight? I don’t think so. To me, he’s this year’s Scott Feldman, a guy who keeps winning but seems to be lucky.

Hunter went 13-4 despite allowing 21 homers in 128 innings as an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Though he struck out seven Rays in his ALDS loss on October 10, he’s usually not overpowering at all. He whiffed just 68 batters in 128 innings during the regular season.

To me, this matchup has slugfest written all over it. Hunter has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and enters Yankee Stadium as a man with a penchant for gopher balls. Burnett is clearly not himself entering Game 4, either. It wouldn’t surprise me much if both teams scored in double digits tonight.

I like the Yankees to bounce back. One key stat we haven’t examined yet: A.J. Burnett’s playoff success at Yankee Stadium. In 2009, he got rocked for 12 runs in eight innings over this two road starts. But he went unbeaten at home, allowing two or fewer runs in all three outings. He has a much better chance to find his comfort zone at home than away – and Joe Girardi knows this.

Expect a truckload of homers tonight but bet on the Yankees to outmash the Rangers and probably rely on Mariano Rivera to close out Game 4.

ALCS Betting Trends:

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas’s last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas’s last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Yankees’s last 10 games
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games at home

Pick: Yankees -147

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About Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.


Comments

Comments

  1. The TBS announcers are so slanted towards NY . I can’t wait for the Rangers to kick their **s>

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