Handicapping MLB 2013 Division Odds – AL West
The 2013 MLB season is only a few weeks away. Spring Training action is going on right now, which means Opening Day is right around the corner. We’re taking a division-by-division look at betting odds and team by team season win totals.
Let’s take a look at the AL West.
In 2012, it was the Oakland Athletics who defied all the odds by winning the AL West Division. How low were the oddsmakers on the Athletics going into 2012? The A’s were listed at +3,500 (someone got a nice payday) to win the AL West and their season win total was set at 72 wins. Oakland ended up winning 94 games and winning the division by a single game.
The Texas Rangers played a one-game playoff with the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round, and the Rangers were knocked out of the playoffs after a single game.
The Los Angeles Angels were the favorites last year, and they finished a disappointing third in the division. Houston makes its first appearance in the AL West this season.
MLB 2013 Previews and Predictions- AL West
AL West Odds: Los Angeles Angels -150
Season Win Total: 91.5
Los Angeles didn’t lose the AL West down the stretch last year; rather they lost it with their horrid start in April. If the Angels are going to top the division this year, they’ll have to get started a little sooner. Do these numbers look a little familiar? It’s because the Angels were a -150 favorite and their season win total was 91.5 games last year. The rotation is probably a little worse this year after losing Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, but the lineup should make up for that.
Josh Hamilton was the prized pickup of the offseason. Who else in baseball can boast a lineup with three guys like Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols? Opposing pitchers are going to despise facing this lineup. C.J. Wilson had offseason elbow surgery, and the Angels will need him to have a good year to shore up their starting pitching.
AL West Odds: Texas Rangers +230
Season Win Total: 86.5
It’s going to seem weird seeing the Texas Rangers without Josh Hamilton in the lineup, but that is the new normal for this team. Can this offense still produce at an extremely high level? Lance Berkman was an interesting offseason pickup for the Rangers. Berkman is 37 years old and had less than 100 plate appearances last year, but getting to DH might help him stay healthy this year.
The Rangers rotation used to be a weakness, but now it is the team’s biggest strength. Yu Darvish should be a contender for the AL CY Young award. Alexi Ogando and Martin Perez lead a talented group of youngsters behind Darvish in the rotation. Jackson Profar is likely to make a quick push to the majors this year, and the team will need his bat.
AL West Odds: Oakland Rangers +600
Season Win Total: 84.5
Can last year’s Cinderella team do it two years in a row? The oddsmakers obviously don’t think they can. It’s certainly true that the Athletics took an uncommon route to a title last year when they won the division despite having one of the worst offense in baseball. The offense is still likely to be a laggard, but this starting rotation is extremely talented. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Brett Anderson has dominating stuff at the top of the rotation, and he should be healthy this year. Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone were terrific last year, and Dan Straily could be a breakout candidate for the year ahead. A.J. Griffin has the stuff to be a star as well. This may be the deepest rotation in all of baseball. They won’t score a lot, but I still think Oakland will be in playoff contention.
AL West Odds: Seattle Mariners +1,475
Season Win Total: 77.5
Seattle actually improved quite a bit as the season moved along last year, but they were still easily in the cellar at the end of the year. They are likely to stay out of the cellar this year since the Houston Astros are now a part of the division. Felix Hernandez is locked up for the long run, which means the top of the rotation won’t be a problem.
Behind Hernandez, the rotation is a major question mark. Joe Saunders is slated as the number two starter, and Saunders’ inconsistency has been maddening in recent years. The Mariners do have a lot of young talent in their lineup.
Jesus Montero should be a very good player moving forward. The pickup of Mike Morse gives the team a strong cleanup hitter. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley must take that next step forward to make this lineup formidable against top pitching staffs.
AL West Odds: Houston Astros +9,500
Season win Total: 59.5
The Houston Astros are likely to be the worst team in baseball again this season. It’s hard to find any real bright spots for the team. The bullpen was atrocious last year, and it doesn’t seem like there have been any clear steps taken to change that this season. Lucas Harrell looks to have some decent upside in the rotation, but I don’t see hardly any depth there. Jose Altuve is a good leadoff hitter, but he needs some proven hitters behind him to knock him in. It’s likely to be a long and ugly season for the Astros in the difficult AL West.
AL West Prediction: Los Angeles Angels (-150)
The Angels are by far the most complete team in the division, and they should finish on top in 2013.
