Handicapping MLB 2013 Division Odds – AL East
The 2013 MLB season is only a few weeks away. Spring Training action is going on right now, which means Opening Day is right around the corner. We’re taking a division-by-division look at betting odds and team by team season win totals. Let’s take a look at the AL East.
The Yankees winning the AL East last year was certainly no surprise, but the fact that they were pushed all the way up to the final day by the Baltimore Orioles was a stunner. The Orioles were baseball’s biggest surprise in 2012. Tampa Bay was shut out of the playoffs despite getting to 90 wins.
The Blue Jays were just 73-89, but they should make a lot more noise this year. Boston had a season that it hopes to never have to relive. Let’s take a look at the always competitive AL East. Plenty of new faces in this division!
MLB 2013 Previews and Predictions- AL East
AL East Odds: Toronto Blue Jays +150
Season Win Total: 89
How could a team that went 73-89 be favored in the brutally tough AL East? Toronto made all kinds of noise in the offseason, and the Blue Jays made it clear they want to win right away. Going out and getting R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buerhle will instantly make this one of the best rotations in baseball. Melky Cabrera and Jose Reyes should be big for the offense as well.
With all the changes, Ricky Romero has gone from an overwhelmed number one starter to one of baseball’s best fifth starters. Brandon Morrow was a breakout star last year, and he’ll likely start the year as the team’s fourth starter. A rotation this good is going to make this team tough to beat. Throw in the fact that they have Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes leading a strong lineup and the Blue Jays are a legitimate favorite. Their fielding could be a cause of concern, so keep an eye on that.
AL East Odds: New York Yankees +290
Season Win Total: OFF
Could the Yankees start out the season with any more injuries than they are in 2013? Granderson, ARod, Teixeira are all out of the lineup at the beginning of the season. Michael Pineda still isn’t ready to pitch for the Yankees. Phil Hughes might not be ready for the start of the season. Derek Jeter is planning to start on Opening Day, but he isn’t completely healed. This team went from a heavy favorite to a major question mark in a hurry over the last month or so.
Andy Pettitte was great after coming back from retirement last year, and if he can pitch that way again this year that will be a major boost for the Yankees. Ichiro should get a major chance to get things rolling for the Yankees from the top of the lineup. This team still has a high upside, but the chances of them missing the playoffs are much higher now that they will be short-handed.
AL East Odds: Tampa Bay Rays +300
Season Win Total: 86
Joe Maddon’s team is in contention every year. The Rays just know how to win. Tampa Bay does it with good pitching and solid fielding. Evan Longoria’s health is extremely important to this team’s chances of long-term success. His constant injury problems seem to hold this team back just enough. He’ll have to stay healthy for them to win this difficult division. While most teams in this division look entirely different than they did a year ago, the Rays look nearly the same. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
The strength of this team is their pitching staff, and I expect Matt Moore to have a breakout season this year. They have three guys with top of the rotation stuff in Moore, Hellickson, and Price. The bullpen might be a little worse than a year ago, so that is a bit of a concern.
AL East Odds: Boston Red Sox +550
Season Win Total: 83
What happened in 2012? It almost looked like Boston had a hangover from their horrific finish in 2011, and it lasted the entire season. Many believe getting rid of Bobby Valentine was the first step to a turnaround. Here’s another team that looks a whole lot different than they did last year. Mike Napoli is likely to be the team’s cleanup hitter this year. Napoli had a big year last year, but I’m not sure he can ever match those numbers again. I’m higher on their pickup of Shane Victorino, who should fit in well in Boston.
The bullpen should be much better with Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan at the end. The rotation gets John Lackey back, and one would assume that Jon Lester will pitch much better than he did in 2012. Lots of unknowns for this team, but they should be much improved.
AL East Odds: Baltimore Orioles +800
Season Win Total: 78.5
No one saw the Orioles success coming a year ago. Baltimore won a ton of close games last year thanks to a very good bullpen and a good defense. They should have both of those again, but they’ll have to start getting some better starting pitching or they won’t be able to get back into the playoffs. Jake Arrieta needs to fulfill his potential and lead the pitching staff this year. Chris Tillman is another guy with tons of potential, but he has been wildly inconsistent in the last couple years. They need him to be better.
Manny Machado has extremely high expectations around him, and he should be a star. The team would get a great boost if Brian Roberts were to get back to his old form, but that is a big question mark. Baltimore won’t be a bad team this year, but I don’t expect them to get back to the playoffs.
AL East Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays (+300)
I’m going with the value play here. Tampa Bay has been good every single year, and 90 wins might win this division this year if they can repeat last year’s performance.
