2010 MLB Predictions/Previews: Toronto Blue Jays
Hard to believe, as many of us watch the snow fall outside, that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; pitchers and catchers have reported to 2010 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year.
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MLB Team Preview – Blue Jays
We’ll start with the World Series Champions’ division – the American League East. We’ll also start at the bottom of that division and, for the first time in years, that means we’re discussing the Toronto Blue Jays.
For the better part of this millennium, the Jays went as Roy Halladay went. He was their ace, their workhorse, the face of the franchise and, arguably, the best player ever to wear a Toronto uniform. 2010 marks the changing of the guard, as Halladay is Philadelphia-bound after rookie general manager Alex Anthopoulos pulled the trigger on a blockbuster that netted Toronto some of the game’s better prospects.
So the news isn’t all bad, right? Toronto knew Doc Halladay would blow town after 2010 and Anthopoulos astutely did what J.P. Ricciardi failed to do last year, acquiring some possible future cornerstones. Starting pitcher Kyle Drabek has ace potential and was dominant in the minors last year, proving that his Tommy John surgery is behind him. The Jays also got Michael Taylor from Philly and flipped him to Oakland for blue-chip hitting prospect Brett Wallace, who should hit for power and average.
The problem: Wallace and especially Drabek aren’t expected to contribute much if at all in 2010. So who is left to help the Jays win games?
Offensively, Toronto should at least remain in the middle of the pack in the American League. Silver Slugger Aaron Hill led all Major-League second basemen with 36 homers last year and, while he likely won’t duplicate that number, he still has significant pop for his position. Raise your hand if you knew that Adam Lind had more homers, more RBI and a higher batting average than Evan Longoria last year. He did, batting .305 with 35 dingers and driving in 114. His minor league track record suggests he’s the real deal.
Toronto can’t expect much from defensive specialist Alex Gonzalez, Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, so two other players must step up for the Jays to be above-average offensively: Travis Snider and Vernon Wells. Snider is more likely; he has monster power and an improving batting eye, not to mention youth on his side. Wells…well, Toronto is stuck with his albatross contract, so he’s not going anywhere. He still has the tools to turn his game around but can’t seem to put it all together.
Toronto’s bullpen has been a strength for several seasons and that shouldn’t change in 2010. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor and Jeremy Accardo are all capable of providing quality innings and Kevin Gregg brings experience if not consistency.
The Jays’ downfall in 2010 will be their starting pitching. It’s not that they don’t have decent arms in the system; Bret Cecil and David Purcey can miss bats and Ricky Romero won a promising 13 games as a rookie. It’s simply that they don’t have a single “sure thing” in the rotation. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are all recovering from significant surgeries and only Marcum is a safe bet to pitch in 2010. Scott Richmond and Mark Rzepczynski look like capable pitchers but have started a combined 40 career major-league games. The wild card is Brandon Morrow, acquired from Seattle this offseason. He has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter but hasn’t yet reached his full potential.
The bottom line is that 2010 isn’t about winning ballgames for Toronto. It’s about rebuilding the farm system and planting the seeds for a Tampa-Bay-like breakout a few years from now.
This year, look for Toronto to replace Baltimore as the American League East’s whipping boy.
Blue Jays Prediction: Fifth, American League East
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