MLB Betting 101 for the 2009 Season
By Tony George
The 2009 spring training games in MLB are well underway, and while March madness is in the air, it has not gone unnoticed by myself the scores rolling across the bottom of the screen on ESPN of the baseball games currently ongoing as the regular season draws near.In 2008, my record for the 3rd straight year was above 60% on moneyline winners in baseball with my money management rule fully in place, NEVER lay over -160 in any game, ever. I also received some grief from past clients as I did not put out a play on 1 single game until 2 weeks before the all star break last year, and I will explain this in detail as to why that paid off long term for my clients.
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Let’s take a look at some rules here to keep in mind:
Less is MORE!
As I always preach and follow in my own betting discipline, I do not spread it around in daily sports like MLB, NBA and NCAA basketball. I single out the best bet on the board daily and bet it. This especially holds true even more so in moneyline wagering. Pro sports in any genre are a calculated risk, even with -300 favorite, because any team can beat any other team on any given day, because they are all pro players and teams, and all teams have a high degree of talent. You cannot lay -250 everyday when the Yankees are playing the Pirates or the Royals and expect to win every time, it will not happen. Find the best bet on the board, single it out, wager it, and do the same approach every day. I saw a well known guy on a respected Sports Monitor, whose record was 341-301 in MLB last year and he was in the Top 4 guys. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? There is no amateur gambler who can sustain a bankroll with over 300 losses in a single season. Be realistic and understand you are wagering to make money!
Never lay big numbers on the moneyline
My rule is simple, I never lay over -160 in a moneyline play, you are nuts if you do so. If you love at team at -200 so much you are willing to lay it, consider a run line at -1.5 runs first. If you are that confident of a team’s ability to win a game going away laying over -200, then lower the odds by playing the moneyline and get it down to -120 or -130. The biggest fault of most novice gamblers is load up on heavy favorites for bail outs, and if they fail to win, you can drain a bankroll fast as a hot knife through butter. It takes more research and hard work to look at underdogs, totals, and short favorites to find the angle, but that is why you use a handicapper to do the work for you. Either that or change your handicapping work ethic or betting theory quickly.
Wait a Month into the season before wagering
While my handicapping peers will curl at this notion, I simply like to win more than I like to sell plays. Winning games on a consistent basis will make me more money selling plays and wagering than anything else. I like teams to settle into their own, let the pitching rotations go through at least 2 or 3 times, and let teams develop some trends and team chemistry before I start putting out selections are making wagers. Early on in the MLB season, you have plenty of NBA to wager for the action junkies, so stick to that in the interim, your odds of winning money are far better.
Starting Pitching is not everything
While there is a huge emphasis on starting pitching in any handicappers arsenal, it is about 40% of the equation. It is important to look past the fact that any teams ace pitcher is starting against a guy who has a 4-8 record on any given night. So many other factors determine winners, such as on base percentage, slugging percentage, depth and ERA of bullpen, and scheduling. You need to consider all of these when handicapping a MLB game, just not starting pitchers.
In closing I strongly suggest considering all of these points when starting out the MLB season. LOOK for reasons to take dogs and short favorites on the moneyline, as well as totals plays. Get a book that has $0.10 lines up to -150. They are out there, why play $0.20 line when you do not have to. Have more than 1 outlet for lines. One book has a game at -127 and another has the same game at -115, meaning shop your lines guys. Using these betting and handicapping approaches have made my clients and myself consistent profits over the years, and 2009 will be no different.
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