NFL Weekend Preview
The trio of games featured in this week’s NFL sports betting preview all have one thing in common: A lack of control.
The New York Giants can’t control the off-field activities of their players (see: loaded gun in pants), the Buffalo Bills can’t control where they play their home games, and the Dallas Cowboys can’t control the weather when they don’t.
Handicapping those three realities will go a long way towards determining who makes money and who doesn’t in Week 14.
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6.5, 43) – 1 PM ET
NYPD Blue is off the air, but if the networks ever decide to reboot the acclaimed primetime drama they’ll have some good stuff for the first episode after Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg (literally) this week.
The Giants (11-1, 10-2 ATS) have suspended the star wide receiver for the remainder of the regular season and have placed him on non-injured reserve for the playoffs. Burress isn’t likely to play in New York again, although that’s the least of his worries now that’s he’s facing jail time for weapons possession.
Eli Manning will miss him in the sense that he’s his big-play target, but the Giants are a running team (160.2 yards rushing per game). Behind closed doors New York brass would have told you Burress was out of town at season’s end anyway, mostly because of all the existing distractions with Plax.
The Giants defeated the Eagles (6-5-1, 7-5 ATS) 36-31 when the teams met on November 9, with New York covering as 3-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is coming off a 48-20 thrashing of the playoff-bound Arizona Cardinals in Week 13, as Donovan McNabb responded to his benching by torching the Cardinals for four touchdowns on 260 yards passing.
Miami at Buffalo (pk, 42.5) – 4:05 PM ET
The Bills (6-6, 5-7 ATS) could really use some freezing temperatures at Orchard Park when they host the Dolphins (7-5, 5-7 ATS) – problem is the game is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto – in the first-ever NFL regular season contest north of the border.
Whether the venerable Ralph Wilson knew this game could prove crucial for Buffalo’s playoff hopes before the season started, the bottom line is the teams will throw down in a dome. That’s an advantage for Miami, even though the Fish have a running game that’s well equipped for bad weather.
Another disadvantage for Bills bettors is starting quarterback Trent Edwards is doubtful with a strained groin, meaning J.P. Losman will likely call signals for Buffalo. Losman went 11-of-17 for 93 yards after relieving Edwards in the Bills’ 10-3 loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday, as Buffalo was upset as 6.5-point road faves.
The Dolphins stiffed Bills backers 25-16 when the AFC East rivals met under the sun on October 16. Miami overcame a 16-7 deficit to cover as 1-point favorites, which was the first time the Fish cashed against the Bills since 2003.
Dallas at Pittsburgh (-3, 39) – 4:15 PM ET
The Cowboys (8-4, 6-6 ATS) look to keep rolling in their return from the dead when they take on the Steelers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) and the league’s best defense.
Dallas was down and out of the NFC postseason picture only a month ago, but has gone 4-1 SU and ATS since to position itself nicely. Tony Romo was 22-of-34 for 331 yards with three TDs and an interception in last week’s 34-9 walk-through over the Seattle Seahawks as 11.5-point faves at Texas Stadium.
Romo will have a tougher time against Pittsburgh, owners of the league’s best defense in nearly every category. The Steelers are first in points against per game (14.2), first in total yards offense against (238.0), tops against the pass (166.8 YPG), and No. 1 against the run (71.2 YPG).
Making matters worse for Cowboys bettors is Sunday’s forecast calls for snow and a high temperature of 26 degrees. Good luck keeping Terrell Owens happy if you can’t see the man.
More importantly, Dallas could be without running back Marion Barber, who is questionable with a toe injury. Barber’s potential absence makes it all the more difficult for the Cowboys to move the ball against a Pittsburgh team that held the New England Patriots scoreless in the second half in last week’s 33-10 road win as 1-point dogs.
