Steve Merril’s Top 5 Best Bets this Week
Below is a look at some of the hottest bets this week, covering an array of different sports and events.
NBA
DENVER NUGGETS
Despite their 105-103 loss in Game 1 on Tuesday night, the Denver Nuggets still got the pointspread win as a 6½-point road underdog. The Nuggets are now 10-0-1 ATS in their eleven NBA playoff games this season.Denver has also bounced back with solid efforts following their other two straight-up losses in the postseason.
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Denver lost Game 3 at New Orleans, 95-93, as a 4½-point underdog and then bounced backed with an easy 58-point road win that tied an NBA playoff record. Denver also responded with an easy 14-point win in the previous round versus the Mavericks after the Nuggets lost Game 4 at Dallas 119-117 as a 2-point underdog.
The Nuggets will try to extend their pointspread dominance on Thursday in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. Denver faces a tough challenge as Phil Jackson’s coached teams are 42-0 in playoff series when they win Game 1.
ORLANDO MAGIC
The Cavaliers set an NBA playoff record by winning each of their first eight NBA playoff games by double-digits this season. The Cavaliers 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS run came to an end on Wednesday night when the Magic overcame a 16-point deficit to pull the upset in Game 1 as an 8½-point road underdog and a +400 dog on the moneyline.
Orlando remains one of the best pointspread teams in the league the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy and Orlando has been particularly away from home with a fantastic 60-35 ATS in all road games, including 31-16 ATS as a road underdog.
MLB
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
All of the sudden the worst offensive team in baseball is scoring some runs. Arizona entered their current East Coast trip last week averaging just 2.3 runs per game and batting only .190 as a team on the road this season. The Diamondbacks stayed true to form in their first game at Atlanta last Friday when they scored just 3 runs, but Arizona then exploded for 12 runs on Saturday.
Arizona has carried that momentum into their current series in Florida as the Diamondbacks have scored 5, 6, and 11 runs in their past three games and are now averaging 7.4 runs per game on this current road trip entering Thursday.
NASCAR
MARK MARTIN
The 50-year old veteran has retired and un-retired almost as much as Brett Favre. Martin barely missed winning the Daytona 500 in 2007 and then ran a limited schedule last year for Dale Earnhardt Inc. However, this season Martin is running the full slate of races for his new team, Hendrick Motorsports, and the results have been impressive. Martin already has two wins this season (Phoenix and Darlington) which is equal to the total wins by all three of his big name teammates Jeff Gordon (1), Jimmie Johnson (1), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr (0).
Martin presents value once again this weekend at Charlotte where he is currently +1100. Martin has 4 career wins and 22 Top 10 finishes at Lowe’s Motor Speedway.
AMERICAN IDOL
KRIS ALLEN
The biggest upset in the history of American Idol occurred on Wednesday night when Kris Allen upset the favorite Adam Lambert to capture the title for season #8. Lambert had been a heavy favorite all season long and was -260 entering the final performance on Tuesday night, while Allen was +220. The odds did drop on Wednesday before the results show with Lambert closing -180 and Allen +140.
The real value was two months ago when Kris Allen opened as a +3000 underdog when the Final 13 began and after a slow start he was +6000 at some sportsbooks. Even last week Allen was +1000 when there were only three contestants remaining.
