THE DECLINE OF THE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IN THE NFL (11-04-2008)
Here is a 25 year look at the decline of the home field advantage in the NFL, and a look at several reasons, that could be contributing factors.
If you go back in the NFL with the inception of Monday Night Football, the rage with the novelty was the home underdog, which seemed to present blind value each time an opportunity presented itself. It has long been established that the homefield advantage was worth 3 points to the home team. How do those numbers work out today, and what is leading to the change?
If you go back to 1983 and take into account every single game played, the home team has averaged 22.3ppg, while the visitor has averaged 19.2ppg. That equates to 3.1ppg, which is what is usually considered the standard. The team that has reigned supreme during the past 25 years is the San Francisco 49ers, who have outscored opponents by 8ppg, and most of that is due to their dominance during most of the period, except recently. The Bottom of the heap are the Arizona Cardinals who have been outscored by 2.5 points a game at home.
We now fast forward to make a comparison to the last 25 years, to the recent most 10 years. The home teams have scored 22.4ppg, while the visitors have scored 19.6ppg. The home field advantage has shrunk a bit to 2.8ppg. The best team for the last 10 years has been the Denver Broncos, who have on average outscored their opponents by 8ppg at home, while the worst team has been the Cleveland Browns, who are being outscored at home by 4.3ppg.
The next look is moving forward to just the last 5 years, where we see home teams scoring 22.5ppg, while the visitors have added 20ppg. That has shown the home field advantage moving down to 2.5ppg in the NFL over the last 5 years. The Colts have been the most dominant home team behind Peyton Manning as they have outscored their opponents at home by an amazing 10.3ppg, and at the bottom rung of the ladder over the last 5 years we see the Houston Texans being outscored by 4ppg.
Now we will narrow it down to just the last 3 years, and we see home teams scoring 22ppg, while the visitor has totalled 19.9ppg. That has now reduced the home field advantage to 2.1ppg. The best team at home has been the Indianapolis Colts once again, while the worst has been the 49ers.
We have seen the home field advantage steadily decline over the last 25 years. What has been a staple of the league of 3 points for home field has gradually eroded to 2. What might be the cause? Is it athletes in better condition, and better travel conditions? Is it the expansion of the league, that brings in teams like Cleveland and Houston, that finished negative?
It may be all of the above and more. Athletes are groomed in this day and age very young, assembling on travel teams, playing High School Football games out of state, and maybe that plays a role on taking a little notch out of the home field advantage, as players are more conditioned at a younger age to cope with life on the road. The once crowned jewel of the NFL, the home dog has gone just 16-22 ATS through 9 weeks of this season. making the road favorite now the best bet in the NFL, at 58%.
Are we now in a different era of football, where the oddsmakers have over-compensated for home field advantage? The numbers say their has been a steady and unnoticeable decline in the home field advantage. If the oddsmakers are now slipping the balance slowly towards the road team as well, another point or two, then suddenly, unknowingly, the handicapper is dealing with a new deck of cards.
It is certainly worth watching how this pans out the rest of the way, as the oddsmakers try to stay one step ahead of the handicapper. It is why every aspect of handicapping has to be an ongoing arduous process of keeping abreast of everything and anything that might be morphing wins into losses. The home field advantage is worth noting, as year by year there has been a steady very slow decline. Are the oddsmakers now taking advantage of this knowledge, and pocketing another point or two that we don’t see? It costs money to buy a point, so one point doesn’t seem like much, but it is certainly equatable to cash, and cost, wins, and losses. If the oddsmakers are stealing another half, or another point, we have now tipped the balance by 1.5 or 2. Many gamblers love the home team, but it may now be time to hit the road!
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