MLB Betting – The Beauty of Overnight Lines
I want to take my pure MLB pick-maker hat off for a moment and exchange it for a betting advisor hat. A lot of bettors who read my picks wonder why I often (though not always) discuss MLB matchups a day or more in advance and not during game time — like when I make Sunday Night Baseball Picks.
Overnight lines in Major League Baseball betting are unique in that they usually offer nothing but upside for you the bettor. I encourage you to use them to your advantage all summer long. Here are some of the main reasons why.
You can do your homework in advance
The beauty about baseball and pitching matchups is that they’re planned well in advance and we have lots of information available about each baseball game at least 24 hours before it happens.
For example, we can break down Tuesday night’s Cardinals/Padres matchup and get a good idea of what will happen. We know Adam Wainwright has a 1.86 ERA against the Padres and a 2.83 ERA on the road this season, so he has a good shot to beat San Diego. We also know Padres starter Jon Garland is winless with a 7.36 ERA against St. Louis in his career. We can even research a fairly accurate San Diego forecast for PETCO Park a day in advance. Here we are a full day away from game time and we know pretty much everything we want to know about the matchup.
Contrary to popular belief, last-minute lineup changes DON’T screw you over
Guess what: your bet is void if a starting pitcher gets scratched at the last second. That’s what makes baseball betting special. It totally shatters the so-called expert tip that you should hold off before betting on ball games. You can do your homework and make your pick knowing that any sudden disaster won’t affect you.
Overnight lines almost always give you better value than day-of lines.
The majority of the betting public believes in the “day of” myth, meaning the masses hammer certain lines closer to game time. The day before, however, when those lines haven’t corrected themselves yet, there’s plenty of value to be had.
Let’s return to the Cardinals and Padres. Given what we know now, the current -130 money line for St. Louis almost seems generous. Chances are, once the typical bettors realize Jon Garland is probably doomed and pummel St. Louis’ line, it will be more like -160 or worse before game time tomorrow.
There you have it, folks. A little advice on the beauty of MLB overnight lines. Don’t ever let anyone stop you from making an early wager. There’s usually nothing but upside when you do so!
SPORTSBOOK.COM PROMOS – JOIN and GET up to $100 FREE – 10% New Member Bonus on your first deposit. $20 Mobile Free Play – Stay on the go and in the dough with Sportsbook.com Mobile. Bet now! Join Now
