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2011 NFL Divisional Round Playoff Handicapping Tips

NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round Preview & Predictions

The road to Super Bowl XLV continues this Saturday with the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. All eight teams have high expectations of advancing onto the Conference Championships next Sunday, but the reality is that only four will actually make it.

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The following is a look at the pertinent statistics and trends for all four games along with my prediction for each. All odds are supplied courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, January 15

4:30 PM (ET)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (CBS-TV)
Pointspread: Pittsburgh -3
Over/Under: 36 ½

The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in Baltimore’s last four games against the AFC North.

The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight playoffs games and 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games at home. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of Pittsburgh’s last 10 home playoff games.

Head-to-head, the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. The Ravens covered as a two-point road underdog in a 17-14 win the first time they met this season, but the Steelers won the second meeting 13-10 as a three-point road underdog. The total stayed well under the closing line in both of these games.

The Pick: Baltimore +3 and UNDER

8:00 PM (ET)

Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX-TV)
Pointspread: Atlanta -2
Over/Under: 45 ½

The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Divisional Round games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of Green Bay’s last nine road games.
The Falcons 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of Atlanta’s last 11 games overall.

Head-to-head, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Green Bay lost to Atlanta 20-17 on a last second field goal in Week 12. The Packers closed as a 2 ½-point road underdog and the total stayed ‘under’ the 47 ½ point line.

The Pick: Green Bay +2 and UNDER

Sunday, January 16

1:00 PM (ET)
Seattle at Chicago (FOX-TV)
Pointspread: Chicago -10
Over/Under: 40

The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last five games in January, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of Seattle’s last nine games against the NFC and in nine of its last 10 games overall.

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC, and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of Chicago’s last nine games in January and in five of their last six games overall.

Head-to-head, Chicago has won three out of the last five games SU, but Seattle is 3-2 ATS. The total went ‘over’ in all five of these meetings. The Seahawks only won two games SU on the road this season but one of them was a 23-20 win over Chicago in Week 6. It covered as a six-point road underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 37 ½ point line.

The Pick: Seattle +10 and OVER

4:30 PM (ET)

New York at New England (CBS-TV)
Pointspread: New England – 9
Over/Under: 45 ½

The Jets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on the road and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC East. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of New York’s last 10 road games.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC East and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last six games against the AFC East and in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Head-to-head, New England has won six out of the last nine games SU and is 5-4 ATS. This season New York won 28-14 in Week 2 as a three-point road underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 39 ½ point line. New England countered with a 45-3 victory in Week 13 as a four-point home favorite. The total went ‘over’ again with the line set at 44 ½.

The Pick: New England -9 and OVER

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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.

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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.


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