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Dolphins vs. Panthers Trends + Week 11 Pick

NFL Week 11 Parlay Picks – Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers

Dolphins (+3) vs. Panthers (-3)
(O/U) 43½
Thursday, November 19 8:00 PM ET

The Miami Dolphins (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U) and Carolina Panthers (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U) will both be looking to get to .500 when the mirror-like teams square off at Bank of America Stadium on Thursday night at 8:00 PM ET.

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Both teams have alternated wins and losses in each of their last five games while going an identical 4-2 against the NFL point spread over the span of their last six contests.

The Panthers have covered the NFL moneyline in three consecutive games while the Dolphins had their two-game ATS winning streak snapped their last time out.

Dolphins at a glance

Miami may have won two of their last three coming into this contest, but they aren’t playing very well in my estimation.

The Fins needed a Herculean effort on Sunday just to beat the one-win Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-23 at home, winning on Dan Carpenter’s 25-yard field goal with just 10 seconds remaining in regulation.

Miami will have to contend with a Panthers team that has played fantastic football over the past three weeks, recording two solid upsets over the Cardinals and Falcons in the process.

The Dolphins will also likely be without starting running back Ronnie Brown who suffered a foot and ankle injury in Miami’s win over the Bucs.

Panthers at a glance

Carolina has been on a roll lately, laying two solid beatings on Arizona and Atlanta and nearly pulling off an upset of the undefeated New Orleans Saints in between those victories.

Carolina’s defense has been playing phenomenal football lately, picking off Matt Ryan twice in Sunday’s convincing 28-19 win just one week after forcing Drew Brees into two turnovers and picking off Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner five times the week before that.

Even better for the Panthers, is the fact that veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme appears to have gotten over an absolutely abysmal early-season slump, throwing three TD passes and no picks over the last three games after throwing 4 TD passes and a whopping 13 picks over his first six starts.

Keys to Victory

Miami

The Dolphins will have to slow down Carolina’s ferocious front four and avoid obvious passing situations that allow the Panthers’ defensive linemen to pin their ears back and put second-year quarterback Chad Henne under too much pressure.

Running the ball effectively will be crucial for Miami in this game if they are to have any chance at winning. With Ronnie Brown out for Miami, the Dolphins need another big game from former NFL rushing champion Ricky Williams who topped the 100-yard mark in Miami’s win over Tampa Bay.

Carolina

The Panthers need to continue running the ball effectively and win the turnover battle in this matchup. Gifted running backs DeAngelo Williams (92) and Jonathan Stewart (82) combined for 174 yards on 30 carries and a similar effort with help immensely in this contest.

Carolina could also use one or two long receptions against a Dolphins’ defense that has been susceptible to the deep ball this season. If Delhomme can hook up with Steve Smith for a few sizeable pass plays, Miami’s ‘seven in the box’ mentality should loosen up very quickly.

Key Trends

Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games as a home favorite.

Analysis: I really like the Carolina Panthers to win this game and cover the NFL point spread by the slimmest of margins for devoted BetUS NFL pro football betting members.

I expect the Panthers to pressure Henne into making at least one or two costly mistakes while keeping the Dolphins on their heels defensively by using their mostly overpowering rushing attack to draw in Miami’s defenders before beating the over the top with Steve Smith and down the seams with Muhsin Muhammad.

The Panthers will have to do a better job of stopping the run than they did in Week 10 when they allowed Michael Turner to rush for 111 yards on just nine carries, but if they can pressure Henne like they did Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, they should be just fine.

Miami will also be in more traditional offensive formations than they usually are with Ronnie Brown, the key cog in their Wildcat offense, out of the lineup in this contest.

I also like the Under in this matchup as I expect Carolina’s defense to force Henne into a couple of turnovers and keep the Dolphins out of the end zone for the majority of this contest.

Carolina shut down a much more potent Atlanta Falcons offense in Week 10 and I expect a similar effort from the Panthers in this prime time matchup.

NFL Expert Picks: Panthers -3 Points/Under 43½ Total Points

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