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Saints vs Falcons Trends + Week 14 Pick

NFL Lock Alert – Saints Look to Stay Unbeaten Against Division-Rival Falcons

The New Orleans Saints (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U) dodged a huge bullet in their 33-30 overtime win over the Washington Redskins in Week 13.

The may not be as fortunate this week against a banged-up, but desperate Atlanta Falcons (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O/U) team that would love to take their division rivals down a peg or two this week.

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Saints vs. Falcons (+10½)
(O/U) 50
Sunday, December 13 1:00 PM ET

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Saints 411

Saints are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Saints are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.

The Saints have scored at least 33 points in each of their last three games, but were fortunate to beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 after allowing the Washington’s woeful 21st-ranked offense to produce a whopping 30 points.

The Saints failed to cover the NFL moneyline as a 9-point road favorite and have gone just 2-4 ATS over the last six games after striking pay dirt fro pro football betting backers in each of its previous four contests.

Falcons 411

Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
Falcons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC South.

The short-handed Falcons got pounded by Philadelphia in Week 13, losing 34-7 as expected while playing without five starters, including quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner.

Atlanta lost for the third time in its last four games and fifth time in seven outings while going 1-3 ATS over the last four and 5-5 ATS over the last 10 games overall.

What the Saints need to do to win

Continue Scoring like crazy – and play better defense

Look, the fact of the matter is that if New Orleans can continue scoring the ball they way they have all season long, it’s going to be hard for any team to beat them. From what I saw against the Eagles last week, the Saints shouldn’t have many problems scoring this week.

However, Atlanta will have Ryan and Turner back this week, giving the Falcons back their explosive big-play capability in the process. If the Saints play defense like they did against the Redskins, they could end up losing in a shootout.

What the Falcons need to do to win

Play better defense, much better.

The Falcons have given up at least 28 points in each of their last three losses, including 34 points in each of the last two and over 34 points in four of the last five losses overall. The only way Atlanta wins this game playing that type of defense is if they put up at least 40 points themselves.

Keep the Saints under 31 points is a tall order these days, but if the Falcons are going to have any chance at winning this game, then they will need a Herculean effort from its uninspiring 16th-ranked defense.

Analysis: I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the best bet for this contest is to play the Over pro football betting enthusiasts.

Not only has the Over gone a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these NFC South division rivals, but the Over has gone 10-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games in December and 22-10-1 in their last 33 games overall, a pretty high percentage (66.6) indeed.

Atlanta’s explosive offense – and lack of defense – have helped the Falcons play over their set O/U total four times in their last five games following a SU loss, while also going 10-3 in the Falcons’ last 13 games as a home underdog and 9-3 in their last 12 games against NFC ballclubs.

The Saints take this game in a high-scoring affair that easily tops the 50-point plateau.

Expert NFL Picks: Over 50 Total Points

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