UFC 133 Hardy vs Lytle Preview & Picks
It’s a free TV event but make sure you catch UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle this Sunday night. Its main two bouts are just as good as what UFC 133 had to offer on pay-per-view last weekend. One of Sunday’s fights has major title implications in the lightweight division.
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Promotion – Ultimate Fighting Championship
Event – UFC Live: World Bantamweight Championship – Lytle vs. Hardy
Date – Sunday August 14, 2011
Time – 9pm ET/6pm PT
Venue – Milwaukee – Bradley Center
Broadcast – Rogers Sportsnet & Versus
Bet on UFC Live
Welterweight: Dan Hardy (23-9, 1 NC) vs Chris Lytle (30-18-5)
UFC odds: Hardy +100, Lytle -120
Expectations are high for this welterweight battle between the tough-as-nails Dan Hardy and Chris Lytle. Both guys famously like to go for broke and throw bombs in the Octagon and jumped at the chance to fight each other. 
The big question is: what does this fight mean for each fighter? Hardy is lucky to still be part of the promotion after losing three straight bouts (Georges St-Pierre, Carlos Condit, Anthony Johnson). A fourth straight defeat would almost certainly send him packing.
Lytle lost his last bout but had won four straight before that. Still, considering how sluggish the 36-year-old looked in his most recent effort, he, too could get a pink slip with a loss.
So it’s clear that both guys should fight with wild desperation in Sunday’s main event. Who has the upper hand? Even though Hardy is the younger fighter and has ascended higher in the welterweight division, fighting for the title in 2010, I expect Lytle to outclass him. It’s as simple as breaking down the skills each guy brings to the table
The striking looks pretty even. Hardy is a power puncher with a devastating left hook. Lytle doesn’t have as many knockout victories to his name but comes from an accomplished boxing background. In the grappling game, Hardy falls short. Like many British imports, he hasn’t mastered the art of wrestling or takedown defense. While Lytle isn’t a wrestling virtuoso, he’s a second-degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.
If Lytle is smart, he’ll take this fight to the ground. Sure, he could go toe to toe with Hardy and throw bombs – but why keep the fight where Hardy is comfortable (and possibly faster)? With his job possibly on the line, I think Lytle will eschew his usual Fight of the Night bonus to make sure he wins. Pick: Lytle -120
Lightweight: Jim Miller (20-2) vs Ben Henderson (13-2)
UFC odds: Miller -145, Henderson +125
In my mind, this is the main event. Jim Miller will almost certainly secure a lightweight title shot against the winner of Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard III with a win. Henderson could earn a shot, too or at least move within one victory of No. 1 contender status. [ad-3573245]
Interestingly, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard are the only two men to beat Jim Miller. Aside from those two losses, he’s quietly been a dominant force at 155. Miller has won seven straight fights since losing to Maynard in March of 2009.
So why has it taken so long for Miller to climb the ladder? As a wrestling/Jiu-Jitsu guy, he hasn’t been viewed as an exciting fighter. But maybe that’s changing. Miller has improved rapidly over his last few fights, showing true finishing ability with his submissions and, in his last fight against Kamal Shalorus, vastly improved and versatile striking.
Ben Henderson is a tough matchup for Miller because he’s so similar. He, too is a strong BJJ fighter and wrestler who can mix in strikes. This isn’t an easy decision for bettors.
Henderson is probably the faster, more athletic fighter. But I believe Miller is the smarter fighter. He’s a warrior but he defends strikes and takedowns pretty well and doesn’t get caught in bad positions. Henderson, on the other hand, goes for broke a bit too much. He eats big shots in most of his fights, even the ones he wins.
I don’t envy the judges in this bout. Neither guy has ever been knocked out and the two competitors have one submission loss between the two of them. I expect this fight to go the distance. In the end, I think Miller wins it on points, as I believe he’ll inflict a bit more damage and take a bit less than Henderson.
After Sunday, Miller may finally get the respect he deserves. He’s worked his tail off and an eighth straight win surely will land him a shot at the 155-pound strap…right? Pick: Miller -145
UFC Live: OFFICIAL FIGHT CARD
Main card
Welterweight Bout: Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller vs. Ben Henderson
Lightweight Bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Donald Cerrone
Welterweight Bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Duane Ludwig
Preliminary card
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway vs. Jared Hamman
Bantamweight Bout: Joseph Benavidez vs. Eddie Wineland
Middleweight Bout: Ed Herman vs. Kyle Noke
Light Heavyweight Bout: Karlos Vemola vs. Ronny Markes
Featherweight bout: Alex Caceres vs. Jimy Hettes
Lightweight Bout: Cole Miller vs. T.J. O’Brien
Lightweight Bout: Jacob Volkmann vs. Danny Castillo
Bantamweight Bout: Edwin Figueroa vs. Jason Reinhardt
