UFC 129 St-Pierre vs Shields Preview & Pick
If the UFC hasn’t gone mainstream yet, it will on April 30 in Toronto. With more than 40,000 fans expected to attend at the Rogers Center in Toronto, UFC 129 will shatter the promotion’s attendance record. The UFC has a lot riding on this card, which has two title fights and a truckload of Canadian fighters. Time to make some picks for the most hyped MMA card in a while.
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Promotion – Ultimate Fighting Championship
Event – UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields
Date – April 30, 2011
Time – 10PM ET/7PM PT
Venue – Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Broadcast – Pay-per-view
Bet on UFC 129
UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHP: Georges St-Pierre (21-2) vs Jake Shields (26-4-1)
UFC 129 odds: St-Pierre -450, Shields +350
If you’re a longtime MMA fan, you’ve been anticipating this fight for a solid five years. No two guys have been more dominant at 170 pounds over the last half decade than Georges St-Pierre and Jake Shields. The UFC champ GSP hasn’t lost a round since his upset loss to Matt Serra four years ago; Shields has won 15 straight fights.
What makes this bout particularly interesting is that it presents a new challenge for each fighter. As one of the world’s very best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners, Shields will be the most dangerous submission artist St-Pierre has ever faced. BJ Penn was tough but small. Shields, meanwhile, has fought at 185 pounds before and even manhandled Dan Henderson, who usually fights at 205 pounds.
On the flipside, St-Pierre will be the strongest pure wrestler Shields has ever faced. Normally, Shields dominates a fight once he takes it to the ground; he could have trouble doing so against the freakishly strong GSP.
If there’s one thing GSP does better than anyone in the sport, it’s prepare. He studies his opponents endlessly and shows up for every bout ready to fight them wherever they’re weakest. Shields’s clear weakness is in the standup game. His striking is very remedial. Could you even say that he “punches”? I’d say he “paws” at his opponents. St-Pierre, meanwhile, made his name as an electrifying Karate striker and trains in boxing with the legendary Freddie Roach. If St-Pierre is smart – and there’s no one smarter – he’ll keep the fight standing and pick Shields apart, just as he did against Josh Koscheck in his last fight. Pick: St-Pierre -450
UFC FEATHERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Jose Aldo (18-1) vs Mark Hominick (20-8)
UFC 129 odds: Aldo -400, Hominick +320
If you like elite striking, don’t miss this featherweight title fight. Both Jose Aldo and Mark Hominick have lightning-quick hands, so this should be a real treat.
Aldo is the obvious favorite; he joins Anderson Silva, Georges St-Pierre and perhaps Jon Jones in the pound-for-pound debate. He’s a phenomenal talent with no visible weakness that we’ve seen so far in his career. His Muay Thai strikes are powerful, unpredictable and fast; his brutal kicks immobilize his opponents; and he’s a BJJ black belt. What more could you want?
Hominick is no slouch, however. He’s perhaps the first man Aldo has ever faced who can match his hand speed. Hominick has blown through his WEC competition of late and really made a statement when he beat the tar out of George Roop to earn his title shot. 
Hominick won’t go quietly, especially fighting in his home country, but the world’s best fighters often give their best performances when pushed by other great fighters. Anderson Silva, who trains with Aldo, fights his best in those situations, and I expect Aldo to do the same. Pick: Aldo -400
Randy Couture (19-10) vs Lyoto Machida (16-2)
UFC 129 odds: Couture +260, Machida -320
Hard to believe Lyoto Machida was undefeated and on top of the MMA world just two years ago. Now, it seems he’s just one or two losses away from a pink slip. The UFC’s one pure Karate striker at one time seemed impossible to hit and difficult to defend against. But Machida was exposed over his last three fights, two of which he lost. His elusiveness sometimes becomes tentativeness; rushing him with strikes can overwhelm him. He also doesn’t respond to well to being bullied and wrestled, as Rampage Jackson showed in Machida’s most recent defeat.
Rampage’s win is very noteworthy because of the way he did it. He pinned Machida up against the cage and dirty-boxed him. Now, Machida faces the man who does that very thing better than anyone else in the history of MMA: Randy “The Natural” Couture.
Couture is the master tactician, constantly willing to fight bigger, younger, stronger fighters because he always has a gameplan. Machida didn’t respond well to being bullied against Rampage; Couture’s speciality is using his Greco-Roman wrestling background to lean on guys and squeeze the life out of them.
I know Couture is the underdog but I genuinely believe he’s a poor matchup for Machida. I like the legend to pull the upset. He just has to avoid taking a big shot from The Dragon. Pick: Couture +260
UFC 129: OFFICIAL FIGHT CARD
Main Card
Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Jake Shields
Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo (c) vs. Mark Hominick
Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz
Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Preliminary card
Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald
Welterweight bout: Sean Pierson vs. Brian Foster
Preliminary Card
Featherweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Pablo Garza
Welterweight bout: Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts
Bantamweight bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia
Middleweight bout: Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson
